ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Beşiktaş Home · Elo 1,624
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gençlerbirliği S.K. Away · Elo 1,539
Tupras Stadium, Istanbul Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beşiktaş win
Beşiktaş winPick
48.6%
Draw
24.8%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. win
26.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.4%
No51.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.9%
Under 2.550.1%

How much we know

Beşiktaş history82 matches
Gençlerbirliği S.K. history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Beşiktaş are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beşiktaş are rated 85 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,624 against 1,539. On rating alone Beşiktaş would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Beşiktaş score more

    1.65 goals a game over 82 matches for Beşiktaş, against 1.45 over 62 for Gençlerbirliği S.K..

  • Defences are close

    Beşiktaş concede 1.13 a game, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Beşiktaş matches, against 56% for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Beşiktaş
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1623.7
ELO
1538.5
82
ELO · Matches
62
1623.7
Current Team ELO
1538.5
1538.5
Current Opponent ELO
1623.7
85.15
Current ELO Difference
-85.15
0.62
Expected score
0.38
82
History Matches
62
0.07
Residual Mean
0.03
55.97
Overperformance
52.42
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.80
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
62
1.71
PPG
1.47
50.0%
Win rate
41.9%
20.7%
Draw rate
21.0%
29.3%
Loss rate
37.1%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.6%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
29.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
31
1.85
PPG
1.26
58.5%
Win rate
35.5%
9.8%
Draw rate
19.4%
31.7%
Loss rate
45.2%
78.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
31.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
41
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.45
82.9%
Scoring rate
72.6%
57.3%
BTTS rate
46.8%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.39
87.8%
Scoring rate
61.3%
63.4%
BTTS rate
35.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
62
1.65
Goals Mean
1.45
1.19
Goals Std
1.33
82.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.6%
51.2%
Scored 2+ rate
40.3%
19.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.21
72.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.19
73.2%
Conceding rate
64.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
0.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
82
History Matches
62
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.21
0.96
Conceded Std
1.11
30.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.1%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.4%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
12.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.89
6.03
Stability score
3.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
62
30
Lead Matches
19
76.7%
Lead Win Rate
73.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
18
Trailing Matches
16
38.9%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.98
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
60
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
17
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
6
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.56
3.00
Portability PPG Range
1.29
38.65
Portability Score
47.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO85.15
PPG0.24
GF0.19
GA-0.08
PPG-1.50
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches20
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches20
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score2.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.51
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate3.0%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate13.9%
Trailing Win Rate4.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range1.71
Portability Score-8.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches20
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO85.15
Current Opponent ELO-85.15
Current ELO Difference170.3
Expected score0.24
History Matches20
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Beşiktaş

D
Kasımpaşa2–2Beşiktaş1 Nov · away
Pick: Kasımpaşa 39% · missed
W
Beşiktaş2–0Başakşehir26 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 42% · hit
D
Beşiktaş2–2Crystal Palace22 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 41% · missed
L
Trabzonspor2–0Beşiktaş19 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 39% · hit
W
1899 Hoffenheim2–3Beşiktaş15 Oct · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 49% · hit

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

W
Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0Alanyaspor2 Nov · home
Pick: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 43% · hit
W
Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0Karaköprü Belediyespor29 Oct · home
Pick: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 56% · hit
L
Konyaspor2–0Gençlerbirliği S.K.25 Oct · away
Pick: Konyaspor 38% · hit
L
Gençlerbirliği S.K.0–1Galatasaray17 Oct · home
Pick: Galatasaray 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Beşiktaş and Gençlerbirliği S.K. meet in Süper Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Tupras Stadium, Istanbul. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Beşiktaş win 48.6%, draw 24.8%, Gençlerbirliği S.K. win 26.5%. The pick is Beşiktaş win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.9%. Both teams to score: 48.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.