ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie F Czechia Group F - 15 2026

Bílovec vs Stonava

Bílovec Home · Elo 1,501
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stonava Away · Elo 1,536
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bílovec win
Bílovec winPick
40.1%
Draw
20.6%
Stonava win
39.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

Bílovec history54 matches
Stonava history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bílovec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stonava are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,501. On rating alone Stonava would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.76 goals a game over 54 matches for Bílovec, against 1.82 over 34 for Stonava.

  • Stonava concede fewer

    Bílovec concede 1.72 a game, Stonava 1.44.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Bílovec matches, against 59% for Stonava. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bílovec
Stonava
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.8
ELO
1536.4
54
ELO · Matches
34
1500.8
Current Team ELO
1536.4
1536.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.8
-35.54
Current ELO Difference
35.54
0.45
Expected score
0.55
54
History Matches
34
0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
50.58
Overperformance
53.32
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
2.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
34
1.39
PPG
1.62
37.0%
Win rate
47.1%
27.8%
Draw rate
20.6%
35.2%
Loss rate
32.4%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
57.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
17
1.69
PPG
1.59
48.3%
Win rate
47.1%
24.1%
Draw rate
17.6%
27.6%
Loss rate
35.3%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
58.8%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
29
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.76
Goals for per game
1.82
77.8%
Scoring rate
85.3%
55.6%
BTTS rate
64.7%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.94
79.3%
Scoring rate
88.2%
51.7%
BTTS rate
64.7%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
34
1.76
Goals Mean
1.82
1.84
Goals Std
1.29
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
85.3%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
55.9%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.72
Goals against per game
1.44
75.9%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.71
69.0%
Conceding rate
76.5%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
34
1.72
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.42
Conceded Std
1.33
51.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
27.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
34
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.77
0.67
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
34
17
Lead Matches
10
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.87
21
Trailing Matches
9
23.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
24
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.56
Portability PPG Range
0.33
47.36
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-35.54
PPG-0.23
GF-0.06
GA0.28
PPG-1.00
PPG0.10
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate0.5%
Conceded 2+ rate16.6%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.39
History Matches20
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score-4.19
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.39
Portability PPG Range1.23
Portability Score-27.64
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Current Team ELO-35.54
Current Opponent ELO35.54
Current ELO Difference-71.08
Expected score-0.10
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bílovec

D
Valašské Meziříčí2–2Bílovec31 Oct · away
Pick: Valašské Meziříčí 46% · missed
D
Bílovec2–2Frydek-Mistek B25 Oct · home
Pick: Bílovec 71% · missed
L
Jiskra Rýmařov5–0Bílovec17 Oct · away
Pick: Jiskra Rýmařov 48% · hit
D
Šumperk1–1Bílovec4 Oct · away
Pick: Šumperk 47% · missed
L
Břidličná3–1Bílovec29 Aug · away
Pick: Bílovec 51% · missed

Stonava

W
Stonava2–1Břidličná31 Oct · home
Pick: Stonava 52% · hit
L
Bospor Bohumín4–1Stonava25 Oct · away
Pick: Bospor Bohumín 69% · hit
L
Stonava0–2Zabreh17 Oct · home
Pick: Zabreh 39% · hit
L
Stonava1–3Vratimov29 Aug · home
Pick: Vratimov 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bílovec and Stonava meet in 4. liga - Divizie F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bílovec win 40.1%, draw 20.6%, Stonava win 39.3%. The pick is Bílovec win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.