BK Hacken vs Fredrikstad
Match result probability Model pick: BK Hacken win
BK Hacken winPick
41.1%
Draw
26.0%
Fredrikstad win
32.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.2%
No40.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
BK Hacken history82 matches
Fredrikstad history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours BK Hacken
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre12 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,277 matches.
Why BK Hacken are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,591 against 1,567. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
BK Hacken score more
1.66 goals a game over 82 matches for BK Hacken, against 1.38 over 76 for Fredrikstad.
-
Defences are close
BK Hacken concede 1.41 a game, Fredrikstad 1.29.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
54% of BK Hacken matches, against 47% for Fredrikstad. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fredrikstad@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1591.0
ELO
1567.2
82
ELO · Matches
76
1591.0
Current Team ELO
1567.2
1567.2
Current Opponent ELO
1591.0
23.79
Current ELO Difference
-23.79
0.53
Expected score
0.47
82
History Matches
76
0.06
Residual Mean
0.03
55.06
Overperformance
52.63
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals 90
82
Matches
76
1.54
PPG
1.41
42.7%
Win rate
39.5%
25.6%
Draw rate
22.4%
31.7%
Loss rate
38.2%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals 100
44
Matches
43
1.57
PPG
1.26
43.2%
Win rate
34.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
20.9%
29.5%
Loss rate
44.2%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
44
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.66
Goals for per game
1.38
76.8%
Scoring rate
68.4%
52.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.33
88.6%
Scoring rate
62.8%
68.2%
BTTS rate
41.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.13
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
75.0%
82
History Matches
76
1.66
Goals Mean
1.38
1.51
Goals Std
1.40
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.8%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.29
69.5%
Conceding rate
76.3%
1.64
Goals against per game
1.42
77.3%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.38
57.1%
Conceding rate
75.0%
82
History Matches
76
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.35
Conceded Std
1.10
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.2%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.2%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
82
History Matches
76
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.13
Goal Difference Std
1.87
2.02
Stability score
2.65
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
82
Eligible Matches
75
27
Lead Matches
22
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.94
25
Trailing Matches
27
32.0%
Non-loss rate
29.6%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.4%
Goal timing5 signals 50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.94
Rest days
82.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.15
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
40
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.35
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
28
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
8
1.86
PPG
2.13
57.1%
Win rate
62.5%
14.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
12.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
7
Current Competition Matches
8
1.86
Current Competition PPG
2.13
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
9
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.94
50.22
Portability Score
44.05
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
82
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO23.79
PPG0.13
GF0.28
GA0.13
PPG-0.27
PPG0.31
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate8.4%
Scored 2+ rate11.9%
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.93
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches6
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score-0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate2.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.27
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.46
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score6.17
Rest days-3.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO23.79
Current Opponent ELO-23.79
Current ELO Difference47.58
Expected score0.07
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
BK Hacken
W
BK Hacken1–0IFK Goteborg1 Nov · home
Pick: BK Hacken 57% · hit D
IF Brommapojkarna0–0BK Hacken28 Oct · away
Pick: BK Hacken 38% · missed W
BK Hacken4–0Degerfors IF24 Oct · home
Pick: BK Hacken 60% · hit W
Malmo FF0–1BK Hacken18 Oct · away
Pick: BK Hacken 38% · hit L
BK Hacken1–3Vasteras SK FK29 Aug · home
Pick: BK Hacken 54% · missed Fredrikstad
L
Fredrikstad0–3Rosenborg31 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg 37% · hit W
Ranheim2–5Fredrikstad28 Oct · away
Pick: Fredrikstad 43% · hit L
Molde5–1Fredrikstad25 Oct · away
Pick: Molde 53% · hit L
Viking3–2Fredrikstad17 Oct · away
Pick: Viking 65% · hit W
Lillestrom1–4Fredrikstad30 Aug · away
Pick: Lillestrom 54% · missed About this match
BK Hacken and Fredrikstad meet in Friendlies Clubs on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: BK Hacken win 41.1%, draw 26.0%, Fredrikstad win 32.9%. The pick is BK Hacken win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 59.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.