ScoreProb
Regionalliga - West Germany West - 16 2026

Bochum II vs SG Wattenscheid 09

Bochum II Home · Elo 1,527
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SG Wattenscheid 09 Away · Elo 1,594
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bochum II win
Bochum II winPick
41.2%
Draw
25.9%
SG Wattenscheid 09 win
32.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Bochum II history62 matches
SG Wattenscheid 09 history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bochum II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SG Wattenscheid 09 are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,594 against 1,527. On rating alone SG Wattenscheid 09 would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.69 goals a game over 62 matches for Bochum II, against 1.87 over 62 for SG Wattenscheid 09.

  • SG Wattenscheid 09 concede fewer

    Bochum II concede 1.39 a game, SG Wattenscheid 09 1.05.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Bochum II matches, against 56% for SG Wattenscheid 09. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bochum II
SG Wattenscheid 09
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1527.4
ELO
1594.1
62
ELO · Matches
62
1527.4
Current Team ELO
1594.1
1594.1
Current Opponent ELO
1527.4
-66.69
Current ELO Difference
66.69
0.41
Expected score
0.59
62
History Matches
62
0.02
Residual Mean
0.08
51.19
Overperformance
55.73
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.95
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
62
1.42
PPG
1.85
37.1%
Win rate
53.2%
30.6%
Draw rate
25.8%
32.3%
Loss rate
21.0%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.2%
62.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.41
PPG
1.67
34.5%
Win rate
46.7%
37.9%
Draw rate
26.7%
27.6%
Loss rate
26.7%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
51.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.87
83.9%
Scoring rate
83.9%
58.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.90
Goals for per game
1.77
86.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
62.1%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
62
History Matches
62
1.69
Goals Mean
1.87
1.19
Goals Std
1.50
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
27.4%
1.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.05
67.7%
Conceding rate
64.5%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.10
69.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
62
History Matches
62
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.05
1.37
Conceded Std
0.99
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.1%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.92
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.76
0.30
Stability score
7.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
61
27
Lead Matches
21
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
32
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.15
55.29
Portability Score
54.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-66.69
PPG-0.44
GF-0.18
GA0.34
PPG0.00
PPG-0.25
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate3.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.34
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.68
History Matches0
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score-7.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.15
Portability Score0.33
Rest days-1.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-66.69
Current Opponent ELO66.69
Current ELO Difference-133.4
Expected score-0.19
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bochum II

L
Sportfreunde Siegen5–0Bochum II31 Oct · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Siegen 51% · hit
D
Bochum II3–3FC Bocholt24 Oct · home
Pick: Bochum II 40% · missed
L
Bochum II0–4Köln II1 Sep · home
Pick: Bochum II 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SG Wattenscheid 09

D
SG Wattenscheid 090–0Sportfreunde Lotte31 Oct · home
Pick: SG Wattenscheid 09 52% · missed
L
Rot-weiss Oberhausen3–0SG Wattenscheid 0925 Oct · away
Pick: Rot-weiss Oberhausen 47% · hit
L
SG Wattenscheid 091–2FC Gutersloh16 Oct · home
Pick: FC Gutersloh 42% · hit
L
Borussia M'gladbach II4–1SG Wattenscheid 0929 Aug · away
Pick: Borussia M'gladbach II 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bochum II and SG Wattenscheid 09 meet in Regionalliga - West on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bochum II win 41.2%, draw 25.9%, SG Wattenscheid 09 win 32.9%. The pick is Bochum II win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.