ScoreProb
Cup Slovakia Round 16 2026

Boleráz vs Skalica

Boleráz Home · Elo 1,493
LIVE · 11'
1–0
Half time 1–0
Wed 4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
Skalica Away · Elo 1,575
Stadium TJ Slavoj Boleraz Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Skalica win
Boleráz win
26.7%
Draw
29.7%
Skalica winPick
43.6%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Goal
9'

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.

Live stats

Boleráz left, Skalica right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Skalica win · 43.6%
Behind: trailing 1–0
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 50.7%
Needs a goal from Skalica
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 57.1%
Needs 2 more goals
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Boleráz history3 matches
Skalica history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Skalica are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Skalica are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,575 against 1,493. On rating alone Skalica would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Skalica score far more

    0.67 goals a game over 3 matches for Boleráz, against 1.34 over 68 for Skalica.

  • Skalica concede fewer

    Boleráz concede 2.00 a game, Skalica 1.25.

  • Boleráz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Boleráz matches, against 47% for Skalica. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boleráz
Skalica
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1492.6
ELO
1575.3
3
ELO · Matches
68
1492.6
Current Team ELO
1575.3
1575.3
Current Opponent ELO
1492.6
-82.77
Current ELO Difference
82.77
0.38
Expected score
0.62
3
History Matches
68
-0.15
Residual Mean
0.05
47.99
Overperformance
53.91
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
3
Matches
5
0.67
PPG
1.80
0.67
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
3
Matches
10
0.67
PPG
2.00
0.67
Goals for per game
1.50
2.00
Goals against per game
1.10
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
3
Matches
68
0.67
PPG
1.51
0.0%
Win rate
44.1%
66.7%
Draw rate
19.1%
33.3%
Loss rate
36.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.9%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
36
1.00
PPG
1.17
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
1
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.67
Goals for per game
1.34
33.3%
Scoring rate
70.6%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.36
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
52.8%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
3
History Matches
68
0.67
Goals Mean
1.34
0.94
Goals Std
1.27
33.3%
Scored 1+ rate
70.6%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.56
100.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
3
History Matches
68
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.63
Conceded Std
1.17
66.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
3
History Matches
68
0.58
Result entropy
0.95
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.76
42.06
Stability score
4.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
3
Eligible Matches
68
0
Lead Matches
20
—
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.93
1
Trailing Matches
23
0.0%
Non-loss rate
4.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
3
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
1.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
118.8
Rest days
73.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
5
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
0
Normal Rest History Matches
39
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
2
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
8
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
—
Portability PPG Std
0.63
—
Portability PPG Range
1.91
—
Portability Score
44.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
3
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-82.77
PPG-0.85
GF-0.67
GA0.75
PPG-0.17
PPG-1.13
PPG-1.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-65
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate37.3%
History Matches-35
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-65
Goals Mean-0.67
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.37
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-65
Conceded Mean0.75
Conceded Std0.47
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate34.3%
Conceded 3+ rate17.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches-65
Result entropy-0.37
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score37.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches-65
Lead Matches-20
Trailing Matches-22
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-65
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-6
Eligible Competition Season Count-6
Rest days45.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest History Matches-39
Long Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-82.77
Current Opponent ELO82.77
Current ELO Difference-165.5
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-65
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-5.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Boleráz

No earlier results with our pick yet

Skalica

L
Ružomberok1–0Skalica1 Nov · away
Pick: Skalica 48% · missed
D
Skalica1–1Spartak Trnava24 Oct · home
Pick: Spartak Trnava 49% · missed
L
Skalica0–2AS Trencin17 Oct · home
Pick: Skalica 52% · missed
L
Skalica1–6Dunajska Streda30 Aug · home
Pick: Dunajska Streda 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Boleráz and Skalica meet in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium TJ Slavoj Boleraz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Boleráz win 26.7%, draw 29.7%, Skalica win 43.6%. The pick is Skalica win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.