ScoreProb
Copa de la División Profesional Bolivia Quarter-finals 2026

Bolívar vs Real Potosí

Bolívar Home · Elo 1,659
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Real Potosí Away · Elo 1,572
Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bolívar win
Bolívar winPick
64.2%
Draw
18.7%
Real Potosí win
17.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.4%
Under 2.536.6%

How much we know

Bolívar history89 matches
Real Potosí history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bolívar are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bolívar are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,659 against 1,572. On rating alone Bolívar would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Bolívar score far more

    2.46 goals a game over 89 matches for Bolívar, against 1.59 over 34 for Real Potosí.

  • Real Potosí concede fewer

    Bolívar concede 1.19 a game, Real Potosí 0.79.

  • Bolívar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Bolívar matches, against 38% for Real Potosí. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bolívar
Real Potosí@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1659.3
ELO
1572.4
89
ELO · Matches
34
1659.3
Current Team ELO
1572.4
1572.4
Current Opponent ELO
1659.3
86.92
Current ELO Difference
-86.92
0.62
Expected score
0.38
89
History Matches
34
0.08
Residual Mean
0.11
56.48
Overperformance
56.68
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.90
2.20
Goals for per game
1.70
1.40
Goals against per game
0.70
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
34
2.01
PPG
1.79
61.8%
Win rate
50.0%
15.7%
Draw rate
29.4%
22.5%
Loss rate
20.6%
89.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
69.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
17
2.37
PPG
1.41
75.6%
Win rate
35.3%
9.8%
Draw rate
35.3%
14.6%
Loss rate
29.4%
95.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
82.9%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
65.9%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
41
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.46
Goals for per game
1.59
94.4%
Scoring rate
82.4%
67.4%
BTTS rate
44.1%
3.15
Goals for per game
1.18
100.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
65.9%
BTTS rate
58.8%
—
Goals for per game
3.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
34
2.46
Goals Mean
1.59
1.65
Goals Std
1.29
94.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
65.2%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
40.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
3.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
0.79
71.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.12
65.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
89
History Matches
34
1.19
Conceded Mean
0.79
1.00
Conceded Std
0.93
33.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.5%
12.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.9%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
34.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
34
0.84
Result entropy
0.94
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.69
15.91
Stability score
6.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
32
50
Lead Matches
14
86.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.95
19
Trailing Matches
6
42.1%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
1.15
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.17
Rest days
75.07
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
22
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.32
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
17
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
4
10
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.18
1.77
Portability PPG Range
0.43
46.62
Portability Score
73.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO86.92
PPG0.22
GF0.87
GA0.40
PPG0.95
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches55
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches55
Goals Mean0.87
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate12.0%
Scored 2+ rate24.0%
Scored 3+ rate19.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches55
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches55
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score9.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches57
Lead Matches36
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate25.4%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches57
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count7
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-27.30
Rest days-0.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches21
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO86.92
Current Opponent ELO-86.92
Current ELO Difference173.8
Expected score0.25
History Matches55
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bolívar

W
Guabirá1–2Bolívar1 Nov · away
Pick: Bolívar 57% · hit
W
Bolívar2–1Universitario de Vinto27 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 75% · hit
L
Real Potosí3–1Bolívar21 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 48% · missed
W
Nacional Potosí0–1Bolívar18 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 55% · hit
W
Independiente Petrolero0–3Bolívar4 Oct · away
Pick: Bolívar 52% · hit

Real Potosí

D
Real Potosí1–1Independiente Petrolero30 Oct · home
Pick: Real Potosí 62% · missed
L
San Antonio Bulo Bulo2–1Real Potosí24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 60% · missed
W
Real Potosí3–1Bolívar21 Oct · home
Pick: Bolívar 48% · missed
W
ABB0–1Real Potosí16 Oct · away
Pick: Real Potosí 59% · hit
W
Real Potosí4–2San Antonio Bulo Bulo6 Oct · home
Pick: Real Potosí 61% · hit

About this match

Bolívar and Real Potosí meet in Copa de la División Profesional on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Hernando Siles, La Paz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Bolívar win 64.2%, draw 18.7%, Real Potosí win 17.1%. The pick is Bolívar win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.4%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.