ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Botev Ihtiman vs Slavia Sofia II

Botev Ihtiman Home · Elo 1,520
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Slavia Sofia II Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Botev Ihtiman win
Botev Ihtiman winPick
49.7%
Draw
25.8%
Slavia Sofia II win
24.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.3%
Under 2.548.7%

How much we know

Botev Ihtiman history53 matches
Slavia Sofia II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Botev Ihtiman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,520 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Slavia Sofia II score more

    1.36 goals a game over 53 matches for Botev Ihtiman, against 1.63 over 49 for Slavia Sofia II.

  • Botev Ihtiman concede fewer

    Botev Ihtiman concede 1.13 a game, Slavia Sofia II 1.33.

  • Slavia Sofia II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Botev Ihtiman matches, against 55% for Slavia Sofia II. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Botev Ihtiman
Slavia Sofia II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1520.2
ELO
1516.9
53
ELO · Matches
49
1520.2
Current Team ELO
1516.9
1516.9
Current Opponent ELO
1520.2
3.32
Current ELO Difference
-3.32
0.50
Expected score
0.50
53
History Matches
49
0.02
Residual Mean
0.02
51.49
Overperformance
51.32
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.12
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.24
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.88
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
49
1.45
PPG
1.43
37.7%
Win rate
38.8%
32.1%
Draw rate
26.5%
30.2%
Loss rate
34.7%
69.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.6%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
1.70
PPG
1.17
44.4%
Win rate
29.2%
37.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
18.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.63
73.6%
Scoring rate
77.6%
49.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.38
77.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.36
Goals Mean
1.63
1.15
Goals Std
1.53
73.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.6%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.33
66.0%
Conceding rate
73.5%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.50
55.6%
Conceding rate
70.8%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.13
Conceded Std
1.25
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
26.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.4%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
49
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
2.06
0.42
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
20
3
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.74
3
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
40.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
34
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.94
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.46
0.44
Portability PPG Range
1.02
73.10
Portability Score
52.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.32
PPG0.02
GF-0.27
GA-0.19
PPG0.75
PPG0.54
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.12
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.55
Stability score-0.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.47
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.40
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score21.00
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Current Team ELO3.32
Current Opponent ELO-3.32
Current ELO Difference6.63
Expected score0.01
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Botev Ihtiman

L
Botev Ihtiman1–2Belasitsa31 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 38% · missed
D
Botev Ihtiman2–2Septemvri Simitli24 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 37% · missed
L
Bansko1–0Botev Ihtiman7 Oct · away
Pick: Bansko 50% · hit
L
Spartak Plovdiv1–0Botev Ihtiman4 Oct · away
Pick: Spartak Plovdiv 49% · hit
W
Botev Ihtiman2–1CSKA Sofia III29 Aug · home
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 45% · hit

Slavia Sofia II

D
Slavia Sofia II1–1Strumska Slava24 Oct · home
Pick: Strumska Slava 50% · missed
L
FK Minyor Pernik5–1Slavia Sofia II7 Oct · away
Pick: FK Minyor Pernik 56% · hit
W
Slavia Sofia II1–0Balkan Botevgrad29 Aug · home
Pick: Slavia Sofia II 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Botev Ihtiman and Slavia Sofia II meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Botev Ihtiman win 49.7%, draw 25.8%, Slavia Sofia II win 24.5%. The pick is Botev Ihtiman win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.