ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Oborishte vs Kostinbrod

Oborishte Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kostinbrod Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oborishte win
Oborishte winPick
56.8%
Draw
24.8%
Kostinbrod win
18.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Oborishte history54 matches
Kostinbrod history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Oborishte are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Oborishte are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,505. On rating alone Oborishte would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 54 matches for Oborishte, against 1.38 over 37 for Kostinbrod.

  • Oborishte concede fewer

    Oborishte concede 1.04 a game, Kostinbrod 1.43.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Oborishte matches, against 54% for Kostinbrod. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Oborishte
Kostinbrod
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1542.9
ELO
1505.2
54
ELO · Matches
37
1542.9
Current Team ELO
1505.2
1505.2
Current Opponent ELO
1542.9
37.73
Current ELO Difference
-37.73
0.55
Expected score
0.45
54
History Matches
37
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.06
Overperformance
50.65
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
37
1.59
PPG
1.43
44.4%
Win rate
43.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
13.5%
29.6%
Loss rate
43.2%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
18
1.96
PPG
0.78
57.1%
Win rate
22.2%
25.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
17.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
28
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.38
74.1%
Scoring rate
78.4%
53.7%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.54
Goals for per game
0.89
67.9%
Scoring rate
61.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
44.4%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
54
History Matches
37
1.50
Goals Mean
1.38
1.36
Goals Std
1.07
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
43.2%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
10.8%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.43
66.7%
Conceding rate
73.0%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.72
60.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
54
History Matches
37
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.43
1.04
Conceded Std
1.26
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.2%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
37
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.71
2.53
Stability score
9.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
18
Eligible Matches
14
6
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
3
66.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
18
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
9
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.08
65.58
Portability Score
92.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO37.73
PPG0.16
GF0.12
GA-0.40
PPG0.50
PPG1.19
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate22.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches17
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.64
History Matches17
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches17
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-6.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.18
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.53
Portability Score-27.38
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO37.73
Current Opponent ELO-37.73
Current ELO Difference75.46
Expected score0.11
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Oborishte

D
Slivnishki geroy0–0Oborishte31 Oct · away
Pick: Oborishte 40% · missed
W
Levski Sofia II0–2Oborishte24 Oct · away
Pick: Oborishte 41% · hit
D
Oborishte2–2Kyustendil7 Oct · home
Pick: Oborishte 52% · missed
L
Oborishte1–3Yantra 20194 Oct · home
Pick: Yantra 2019 37% · hit
D
Oborishte0–0FK Minyor Pernik29 Aug · home
Pick: Oborishte 44% · missed

Kostinbrod

D
Kostinbrod3–3Bansko31 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 48% · missed
W
Levski Sofia II1–2Kostinbrod29 Aug · away
Pick: Levski Sofia II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Oborishte and Kostinbrod meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Oborishte win 56.8%, draw 24.8%, Kostinbrod win 18.4%. The pick is Oborishte win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.