Budučnost Krušik vs FK Partizan
What we said before kickoff Result: FK Partizan win
Budučnost Krušik win
19.5%
Draw
25.6%
FK Partizan winPick Result
54.9%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickFK Partizan win · 54.9%
What happenedFK Partizan win · we gave it 54.9%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.6%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 50.7%
What happenedYes · 1–5
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: FK Partizan win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
55%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.8
on average A pick at 55% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalN. Aleksic
4' 53'
GoalJeh
54'
GoalI. Zubairu
57'
GoalE. Kojzek
66'
GoalS. Mitrovic
90'
GoalN. Cumic
Both teams to score
Yes49.3%
No50.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
How much we know
Budučnost Krušik history40 matches
FK Partizan history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–5Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why FK Partizan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
FK Partizan are rated 131 Elo points higher
Elo 1,629 against 1,498. On rating alone FK Partizan would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.
-
FK Partizan score far more
1.08 goals a game over 40 matches for Budučnost Krušik, against 1.88 over 80 for FK Partizan.
-
Budučnost Krušik concede fewer
Budučnost Krušik concede 1.05 a game, FK Partizan 1.18.
-
FK Partizan games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Budučnost Krušik matches, against 65% for FK Partizan. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Partizan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1497.9
ELO
1628.9
40
ELO · Matches
80
1497.9
Current Team ELO
1628.9
1628.9
Current Opponent ELO
1497.9
-131.0
Current ELO Difference
131.0
0.32
Expected score
0.68
40
History Matches
80
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.07
49.20
Overperformance
55.69
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
2.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
80
1.30
PPG
1.86
32.5%
Win rate
55.0%
32.5%
Draw rate
21.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
23.8%
65.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
42.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
17.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
43
1.50
PPG
1.70
38.9%
Win rate
48.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.3%
27.8%
Loss rate
27.9%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
22.2%
Over 2.5 rate
65.1%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
18
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.88
67.5%
Scoring rate
78.8%
42.5%
BTTS rate
52.5%
0.94
Goals for per game
1.79
61.1%
Scoring rate
74.4%
22.2%
BTTS rate
53.5%
40
History Matches
80
1.08
Goals Mean
1.88
1.03
Goals Std
1.51
67.5%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
55.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.79
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.05
Goals against per game
1.18
60.0%
Conceding rate
65.0%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.42
44.4%
Conceding rate
72.1%
40
History Matches
80
1.05
Conceded Mean
1.18
1.09
Conceded Std
1.06
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
32.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
35.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
80
1.00
Result entropy
0.91
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.91
0.06
Stability score
9.03
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
38
Eligible Matches
80
10
Lead Matches
38
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.90
9
Trailing Matches
19
11.1%
Non-loss rate
31.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
80
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
149.9
Rest days
72.71
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.57
25
Normal Rest History Matches
47
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
13
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
9
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.67
0.42
Portability PPG Range
2.20
70.54
Portability Score
42.67
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-131.0
PPG-0.56
GF-0.80
GA-0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-40
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches-25
Clean-sheet rate27.6%
Failed-to-score rate13.3%
History Matches-40
Goals Mean-0.80
Goals Std-0.48
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.85
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-40
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-40
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-8.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches-42
Lead Matches-28
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.16
Halftime Coverage Matches-42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.46
Portability PPG Range-1.78
Portability Score27.87
Rest days77.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.57
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-131.0
Current Opponent ELO131.0
Current ELO Difference-262.0
Expected score-0.36
History Matches-40
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Budučnost Krušik
No earlier results with our pick yet
FK Partizan
W
FK Partizan3–0Zemun1 Nov · home
Pick: FK Partizan 66% · hit L
FK Partizan0–2Cukaricki24 Oct · home
Pick: FK Partizan 52% · missed W
FK Partizan3–1OFK Beograd31 Aug · home
Pick: FK Partizan 58% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Budučnost Krušik and FK Partizan finished 1–5 in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Budučnost Krušik win 19.5%, draw 25.6%, FK Partizan win 54.9%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.