ScoreProb
National Soccer League Rwanda Round 1 2026

Bugesera vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Bugesera Home · Elo 1,512
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Hilal Omdurman Away · Elo 1,667
Bugesera stadium, Nyamata Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Hilal Omdurman win
Bugesera win
19.8%
Draw
22.6%
Al Hilal Omdurman winPick
57.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Bugesera history47 matches
Al Hilal Omdurman history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 5 h ahead
    4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al Hilal Omdurman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Hilal Omdurman are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,667 against 1,512. On rating alone Al Hilal Omdurman would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Al Hilal Omdurman score far more

    1.13 goals a game over 47 matches for Bugesera, against 1.91 over 76 for Al Hilal Omdurman.

  • Al Hilal Omdurman concede fewer

    Bugesera concede 1.06 a game, Al Hilal Omdurman 0.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Bugesera matches, against 51% for Al Hilal Omdurman. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bugesera
Al Hilal Omdurman
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.3
ELO
1666.9
47
ELO · Matches
76
1512.3
Current Team ELO
1666.9
1666.9
Current Opponent ELO
1512.3
-154.7
Current ELO Difference
154.7
0.29
Expected score
0.71
47
History Matches
76
0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
50.51
Overperformance
58.24
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
76
1.38
PPG
2.04
38.3%
Win rate
60.5%
23.4%
Draw rate
22.4%
38.3%
Loss rate
17.1%
57.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
39
1.50
PPG
2.08
45.5%
Win rate
59.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
40.9%
Loss rate
10.3%
54.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
22
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
1.91
66.0%
Scoring rate
86.8%
38.3%
BTTS rate
47.4%
1.23
Goals for per game
1.87
59.1%
Scoring rate
94.9%
31.8%
BTTS rate
56.4%
47
History Matches
76
1.13
Goals Mean
1.91
1.12
Goals Std
1.47
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.8%
31.9%
Scored 2+ rate
53.9%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.3%
1.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
0.74
59.6%
Conceding rate
56.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.82
63.6%
Conceding rate
59.0%
47
History Matches
76
1.06
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.12
Conceded Std
0.77
31.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.5%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
5.1%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.0%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
5.1%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
76
0.98
Result entropy
0.86
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.15
Stability score
14.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
71
12
Lead Matches
36
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.1%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
161.0
Rest days
92.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
21
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.38
23
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.17
Portability PPG Range
0.39
85.71
Portability Score
78.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-154.7
PPG-0.66
GF-0.78
GA0.33
PPG-0.58
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate20.9%
History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate35.8%
History Matches-29
Goals Mean-0.78
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches-29
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-12.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.78
Eligible Matches-25
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score7.18
Rest days69.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-17
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.63
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-154.7
Current Opponent ELO154.7
Current ELO Difference-309.3
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-29
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bugesera

L
Police1–0Bugesera1 Nov · away
Pick: Police 46% · hit
W
Gasogi United0–2Bugesera18 Oct · away
Pick: Bugesera 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Hilal Omdurman

W
Gasogi United0–2Al Hilal Omdurman31 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 52% · hit
L
Marines3–0Al Hilal Omdurman28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 55% · missed
W
Al Hilal Omdurman2–0Sidama Bunna25 Oct · home
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 60% · hit
W
Sidama Bunna0–2Al Hilal Omdurman18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bugesera and Al Hilal Omdurman meet in National Soccer League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Bugesera stadium, Nyamata. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 07:21 UTC: Bugesera win 19.8%, draw 22.6%, Al Hilal Omdurman win 57.6%. The pick is Al Hilal Omdurman win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.