Burgan vs Shamiya
What we said before kickoff Result: Burgan win
Burgan winPick Result
60.5%
Draw
22.6%
Shamiya win
16.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickBurgan win · 60.5%
What happenedBurgan win · we gave it 60.5%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 61.3%
What happenedUnder · 1 goal
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 52.3%
What happenedNo · 1–0
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Burgan win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
61%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average A pick at 61% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes52.3%
No47.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.3%
Under 2.538.7%
How much we know
Burgan history38 matches
Shamiya history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 14:30 UTC
- Full time: 1–0One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Burgan are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Burgan are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,464 against 1,406. On rating alone Burgan would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Burgan score more
1.18 goals a game over 38 matches for Burgan, against 0.95 over 19 for Shamiya.
-
Burgan concede fewer
Burgan concede 1.29 a game, Shamiya 3.00.
-
Shamiya games more often go over 2.5 goals
47% of Burgan matches, against 84% for Shamiya. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 18 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shamiya@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1464.0
ELO
1406.1
38
ELO · Matches
19
1464.0
Current Team ELO
1406.1
1406.1
Current Opponent ELO
1464.0
57.95
Current ELO Difference
-57.95
0.58
Expected score
0.42
38
History Matches
19
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.25
46.28
Overperformance
37.78
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
3.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.70
0.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.90
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.45
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
38
Matches
19
1.16
PPG
0.58
26.3%
Win rate
15.8%
36.8%
Draw rate
10.5%
36.8%
Loss rate
73.7%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
47.4%
Over 2.5 rate
84.2%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals 100
17
Matches
10
1.59
PPG
0.70
41.2%
Win rate
20.0%
35.3%
Draw rate
10.0%
23.5%
Loss rate
70.0%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
17
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
0.95
60.5%
Scoring rate
63.2%
44.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.35
Goals for per game
0.80
58.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
29.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
38
History Matches
19
1.18
Goals Mean
0.95
1.19
Goals Std
0.89
60.5%
Scored 1+ rate
63.2%
39.5%
Scored 2+ rate
26.3%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
1.35
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
3.00
65.8%
Conceding rate
89.5%
0.71
Goals against per game
2.30
52.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
38
History Matches
19
1.29
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.14
Conceded Std
1.81
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
78.9%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
63.2%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
2.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
10.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
38
History Matches
19
0.99
Result entropy
0.69
1.57
Goal Difference Std
2.04
1.05
Stability score
31.42
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
26
Eligible Matches
12
5
Lead Matches
4
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.53
Lead Points Retention
0.75
6
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.89
Rest days
78.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.16
Portability PPG Range
—
86.38
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
38
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO57.95
PPG0.58
GF0.24
GA-1.71
PPG0.89
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate27.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate13.2%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-1.71
Conceded Std-0.66
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.42
Venue Conceded Mean-1.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches19
Result entropy0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score-30.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.57
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.35
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.73
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO57.95
Current Opponent ELO-57.95
Current ELO Difference115.9
Expected score0.17
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance8.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Match report
Burgan and Shamiya finished 1–0 in Division 1 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Burgan win 60.5%, draw 22.6%, Shamiya win 16.8%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.