ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie D Czechia Group D - 15 2026

Bystrc Kníničky vs Sparta Brno

Bystrc Kníničky Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sparta Brno Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bystrc Kníničky win
Bystrc Kníničky winPick
39.1%
Draw
26.0%
Sparta Brno win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%

How much we know

Bystrc Kníničky history4 matches
Sparta Brno history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Bystrc Kníničky are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,479 against 1,471. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Sparta Brno score more

    1.25 goals a game over 4 matches for Bystrc Kníničky, against 1.78 over 37 for Sparta Brno.

  • Defences are close

    Bystrc Kníničky concede 1.75 a game, Sparta Brno 1.76.

  • Sparta Brno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Bystrc Kníničky matches, against 62% for Sparta Brno. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bystrc Kníničky
Sparta Brno
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.0
ELO
1470.9
4
ELO · Matches
37
1479.0
Current Team ELO
1470.9
1470.9
Current Opponent ELO
1479.0
8.10
Current ELO Difference
-8.10
0.51
Expected score
0.49
4
History Matches
37
-0.26
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.63
Overperformance
48.28
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
0.50
PPG
2.00
1.25
Goals for per game
1.40
1.75
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
4
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.30
1.25
Goals for per game
1.30
1.75
Goals against per game
1.70
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
37
0.50
PPG
1.27
0.0%
Win rate
37.8%
50.0%
Draw rate
13.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
48.6%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
16
0.50
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
18.8%
50.0%
Draw rate
18.8%
50.0%
Loss rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
2
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.78
75.0%
Scoring rate
78.4%
75.0%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.06
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
37
1.25
Goals Mean
1.78
0.83
Goals Std
1.96
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.76
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.19
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
4
History Matches
37
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.76
0.83
Conceded Std
1.53
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.4%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
37
0.63
Result entropy
0.90
0.50
Goal Difference Std
2.74
36.91
Stability score
10.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
37
1
Lead Matches
13
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.74
1
Trailing Matches
13
100.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
78.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
1
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
2
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.20
—
Portability Score
83.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO8.10
PPG-0.77
GF-0.53
GA-0.01
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.25
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-33
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-1.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate12.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.70
Clean-sheet rate-0.24
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.27
Goal Difference Std-2.24
Stability score26.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.35
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.69
Lead Points Retention-0.41
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate84.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO8.10
Current Opponent ELO-8.10
Current ELO Difference16.19
Expected score0.02
History Matches-33
Residual Mean-0.24
Overperformance-2.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bystrc Kníničky

W
Velká Bíteš3–4Bystrc Kníničky1 Nov · away
Pick: Velká Bíteš 55% · missed
L
Kuřim7–0Bystrc Kníničky24 Oct · away
Pick: Kuřim 70% · hit
W
Bystrc Kníničky4–0Bedrichov17 Oct · home
Pick: Bystrc Kníničky 54% · hit
W
Humpolec0–2Bystrc Kníničky30 Aug · away
Pick: Humpolec 56% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sparta Brno

D
Sparta Brno2–2Kuřim31 Oct · home
Pick: Kuřim 57% · missed
W
Bedrichov2–5Sparta Brno24 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Brno 39% · hit
W
Sparta Brno5–1Velké Meziříčí17 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Brno 46% · hit
L
Znojmo3–0Sparta Brno29 Aug · away
Pick: Znojmo 49% · hit
L
Sparta Brno0–9Baník Ostrava26 Aug · home
Pick: Baník Ostrava 51% · hit

About this match

Bystrc Kníničky and Sparta Brno meet in 4. liga - Divizie D on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bystrc Kníničky win 39.1%, draw 26.0%, Sparta Brno win 34.9%. The pick is Bystrc Kníničky win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.