ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 1 Italy Round 10 2026

Cagliari U20 vs Lazio U20

Cagliari U20 Home · Elo 1,514
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lazio U20 Away · Elo 1,513
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cagliari U20 win
Cagliari U20 winPick
47.2%
Draw
27.4%
Lazio U20 win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.0%
No49.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%

How much we know

Cagliari U20 history60 matches
Lazio U20 history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Cagliari U20 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,514 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Cagliari U20 score more

    1.42 goals a game over 60 matches for Cagliari U20, against 1.19 over 59 for Lazio U20.

  • Defences are close

    Cagliari U20 concede 1.32 a game, Lazio U20 1.24.

  • Cagliari U20 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Cagliari U20 matches, against 44% for Lazio U20. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cagliari U20
Lazio U20
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1513.7
ELO
1512.9
60
ELO · Matches
59
1513.7
Current Team ELO
1512.9
1512.9
Current Opponent ELO
1513.7
0.88
Current ELO Difference
-0.88
0.50
Expected score
0.50
60
History Matches
59
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.55
Overperformance
50.70
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.42
PPG
1.37
38.3%
Win rate
35.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
30.5%
35.0%
Loss rate
33.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.1%
56.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.1%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.62
PPG
1.30
44.8%
Win rate
33.3%
27.6%
Draw rate
30.0%
27.6%
Loss rate
36.7%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
1.19
80.0%
Scoring rate
72.9%
51.7%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.31
Goals for per game
0.97
79.3%
Scoring rate
63.3%
48.3%
BTTS rate
46.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.42
Goals Mean
1.19
1.00
Goals Std
0.97
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
11.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.24
66.7%
Conceding rate
67.8%
0.93
Goals against per game
1.10
62.1%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.23
Conceded Std
1.21
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.6%
0.93
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.63
Goal Difference Std
1.37
1.01
Stability score
0.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
21
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.71
8
Trailing Matches
10
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.89
Rest days
78.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
39
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.95
Portability PPG Range
1.10
51.19
Portability Score
50.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO0.88
PPG0.04
GF0.23
GA0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.32
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate7.1%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score0.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score0.22
Rest days-1.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO0.88
Current Opponent ELO-0.88
Current ELO Difference1.76
Expected score0.00
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cagliari U20

W
Empoli U202–3Cagliari U202 Nov · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 42% · hit
W
Cagliari U204–1Lecco U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari U20 67% · hit
W
Cagliari U203–2Como U2025 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari U20 63% · hit
L
Milan U202–0Cagliari U2017 Oct · away
Pick: Cagliari U20 39% · missed
D
Cagliari U201–1Monza U2012 Oct · home
Pick: Cagliari U20 57% · missed

Lazio U20

W
Lazio U203–1Sassuolo U2031 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio U20 45% · hit
W
Lazio U202–0Sudtirol U1927 Oct · home
Pick: Lazio U20 53% · hit
D
Atalanta U202–2Lazio U2023 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta U20 40% · missed
D
Lazio U202–2Internazionale U2017 Oct · home
Pick: Internazionale U20 37% · missed
W
Lazio U206–2Albinoleffe U2029 Aug · home
Pick: Lazio U20 68% · hit

About this match

Cagliari U20 and Lazio U20 meet in Campionato Primavera - 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Cagliari U20 win 47.2%, draw 27.4%, Lazio U20 win 25.5%. The pick is Cagliari U20 win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.0%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.