Calor de San Pedro vs Real Apodaca
Match result probability Model pick: Calor de San Pedro win
Calor de San Pedro winPick
34.2%
Draw
33.0%
Real Apodaca win
32.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.3%
No51.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%
How much we know
Calor de San Pedro history33 matches
Real Apodaca history26 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Calor de San Pedro
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Calor de San Pedro are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Real Apodaca are rated 84 Elo points higher
Elo 1,605 against 1,521. On rating alone Real Apodaca would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Real Apodaca score far more
1.15 goals a game over 33 matches for Calor de San Pedro, against 1.88 over 26 for Real Apodaca.
-
Real Apodaca concede fewer
Calor de San Pedro concede 1.00 a game, Real Apodaca 0.81.
-
Real Apodaca games more often go over 2.5 goals
33% of Calor de San Pedro matches, against 62% for Real Apodaca. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 27 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Apodaca@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1520.6
ELO
1604.7
33
ELO · Matches
26
1520.6
Current Team ELO
1604.7
1604.7
Current Opponent ELO
1520.6
-84.06
Current ELO Difference
84.06
0.38
Expected score
0.62
33
History Matches
26
0.03
Residual Mean
0.20
51.72
Overperformance
61.20
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
0.70
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
33
Matches
26
1.48
PPG
2.31
39.4%
Win rate
73.1%
30.3%
Draw rate
11.5%
30.3%
Loss rate
15.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
13
1.69
PPG
1.77
43.8%
Win rate
53.8%
37.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
18.8%
Loss rate
30.8%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
7.7%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
16
History Matches
13
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.15
Goals for per game
1.88
66.7%
Scoring rate
84.6%
51.5%
BTTS rate
42.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.38
68.8%
Scoring rate
69.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
30.8%
33
History Matches
26
1.15
Goals Mean
1.88
1.13
Goals Std
1.19
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.6%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.7%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
42.3%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.81
75.8%
Conceding rate
53.8%
0.81
Goals against per game
0.92
62.5%
Conceding rate
53.8%
33
History Matches
26
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.81
0.70
Conceded Std
0.88
24.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.4%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
33
History Matches
26
0.99
Result entropy
0.70
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.54
0.73
Stability score
30.24
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
32
Eligible Matches
25
4
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
9
Trailing Matches
3
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
209.0
Rest days
201.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.79
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.05
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.10
Portability PPG Range
0.35
91.14
Portability Score
74.19
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
33
Clean History Matches
26
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-84.06
PPG-0.82
GF-0.73
GA0.19
PPG-0.08
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.27
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate1.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches7
Result entropy0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-29.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score16.95
Rest days8.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.07
Current Team ELO-84.06
Current Opponent ELO84.06
Current ELO Difference-168.1
Expected score-0.24
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-9.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Calor de San Pedro
L
Mineros de Fresnillo4–1Calor de San Pedro25 Oct · away
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 36% · missed L
Calor de San Pedro1–2Delfines Coatzacoalcos16 Oct · home
Pick: Calor de San Pedro 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Real Apodaca
L
Halcones Negros1–0Real Apodaca3 Nov · away
Pick: Halcones Negros 34% · hit L
Real Apodaca1–2Vaqueros Reynosa4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Apodaca 64% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Calor de San Pedro and Real Apodaca meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Calor de San Pedro win 34.2%, draw 33.0%, Real Apodaca win 32.8%. The pick is Calor de San Pedro win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.