ScoreProb
Liga Nacional Honduras Round 14 2026

CD Marathon vs Atlético Choloma

CD Marathon Home · Elo 1,596
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlético Choloma Away · Elo 1,442
Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CD Marathon win
CD Marathon winPick
68.2%
Draw
20.9%
Atlético Choloma win
10.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.2%
No52.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

CD Marathon history64 matches
Atlético Choloma history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 01:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.2%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why CD Marathon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CD Marathon are rated 154 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,596 against 1,442. On rating alone CD Marathon would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • CD Marathon score more

    1.44 goals a game over 64 matches for CD Marathon, against 1.18 over 34 for Atlético Choloma.

  • CD Marathon concede fewer

    CD Marathon concede 0.73 a game, Atlético Choloma 1.88.

  • Atlético Choloma games more often go over 2.5 goals

    34% of CD Marathon matches, against 59% for Atlético Choloma. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CD Marathon
Atlético Choloma
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1595.6
ELO
1442.0
64
ELO · Matches
34
1595.6
Current Team ELO
1442.0
1442.0
Current Opponent ELO
1595.6
153.6
Current ELO Difference
-153.6
0.71
Expected score
0.29
64
History Matches
34
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.08
55.71
Overperformance
44.73
0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
0.40
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
34
1.77
PPG
0.97
45.3%
Win rate
26.5%
40.6%
Draw rate
17.6%
14.1%
Loss rate
55.9%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
34.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
32.4%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
17
2.09
PPG
0.71
60.6%
Win rate
17.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
17.6%
12.1%
Loss rate
64.7%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
33
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.18
78.1%
Scoring rate
67.6%
40.6%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.06
84.8%
Scoring rate
58.8%
33.3%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
64
History Matches
34
1.44
Goals Mean
1.18
1.26
Goals Std
1.22
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
17.2%
Scored 3+ rate
5.9%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.73
Goals against per game
1.88
50.0%
Conceding rate
85.3%
0.61
Goals against per game
1.94
42.4%
Conceding rate
88.2%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
34
0.73
Conceded Mean
1.88
0.87
Conceded Std
1.60
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.4%
0.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
57.6%
Clean-sheet rate
11.8%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
34
0.91
Result entropy
0.89
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.93
8.93
Stability score
10.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
34
26
Lead Matches
5
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
11
63.6%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.19
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
27
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.75
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.25
78.09
Portability Score
80.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO153.6
PPG0.80
GF0.26
GA-1.15
PPG1.25
PPG1.39
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches30
Clean-sheet rate35.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate45.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches30
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate11.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.57
History Matches30
Conceded Mean-1.15
Conceded Std-0.73
Clean-sheet rate35.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.28
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.63
History Matches30
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-1.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.80
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches21
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate54.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.53
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-1.91
Rest days-0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match1.17
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.84
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO153.6
Current Opponent ELO-153.6
Current ELO Difference307.2
Expected score0.42
History Matches30
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance10.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CD Marathon

L
CD Motagua2–0CD Marathon1 Nov · away
Pick: CD Motagua 38% · hit
D
Alianza0–0CD Marathon28 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · missed
D
Atletico Independiente2–2CD Marathon25 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 45% · missed
W
CD Marathon2–1Alianza21 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
W
CD Marathon2–1Olancho15 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit

Atlético Choloma

L
Atlético Choloma0–3CD Olimpia1 Nov · home
Pick: CD Olimpia 73% · hit
W
Atlético Choloma3–1Génesis24 Oct · home
Pick: Génesis 53% · missed
W
Juticalpa1–2Atlético Choloma17 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Choloma 38% · hit
L
Real Espana2–1Atlético Choloma30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Espana 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

CD Marathon and Atlético Choloma meet in Liga Nacional on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 01:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal, San Pedro Sula. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: CD Marathon win 68.2%, draw 20.9%, Atlético Choloma win 10.9%. The pick is CD Marathon win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 47.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.