ScoreProb
Premiership Scotland Round 13 2026

Celtic vs Kilmarnock

Celtic Home · Elo 1,680
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kilmarnock Away · Elo 1,534
Celtic Park, Glasgow Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Celtic win
Celtic winPick
75.2%
Draw
14.1%
Kilmarnock win
10.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.6%
Under 2.529.4%

How much we know

Celtic history94 matches
Kilmarnock history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (75.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Celtic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Celtic are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,680 against 1,534. On rating alone Celtic would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Celtic score more

    2.12 goals a game over 94 matches for Celtic, against 1.41 over 69 for Kilmarnock.

  • Celtic concede fewer

    Celtic concede 1.18 a game, Kilmarnock 1.59.

  • Celtic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Celtic matches, against 58% for Kilmarnock. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celtic
Kilmarnock
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1680.4
ELO
1533.9
94
ELO · Matches
69
1680.4
Current Team ELO
1533.9
1533.9
Current Opponent ELO
1680.4
146.6
Current ELO Difference
-146.6
0.70
Expected score
0.30
94
History Matches
69
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
57.56
Overperformance
52.53
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
94
Matches
69
1.93
PPG
1.35
57.4%
Win rate
37.7%
20.2%
Draw rate
21.7%
22.3%
Loss rate
40.6%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
67.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.0%
47.9%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
32
2.13
PPG
1.00
65.2%
Win rate
25.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
17.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
71.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
46
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.12
Goals for per game
1.41
88.3%
Scoring rate
75.4%
60.6%
BTTS rate
49.3%
2.35
Goals for per game
1.22
91.3%
Scoring rate
68.8%
56.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
94
History Matches
69
2.12
Goals Mean
1.41
1.50
Goals Std
1.16
88.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
36.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.35
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.59
67.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.91
60.9%
Conceding rate
71.9%
0.50
Goals against per game
4.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
94
History Matches
69
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.15
Conceded Std
1.55
33.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.91
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
33.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
94
History Matches
69
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.06
11.12
Stability score
3.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
94
Eligible Matches
69
47
Lead Matches
27
83.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.74
16
Trailing Matches
19
25.0%
Non-loss rate
15.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
94
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
85.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
16
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.94
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
56
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
13
Competition Season Count
8
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.68
Portability PPG Std
0.54
2.17
Portability PPG Range
1.28
42.24
Portability Score
47.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
94
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO146.6
PPG0.58
GF0.71
GA-0.41
PPG3.00
PPG1.13
PPG1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches25
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate12.9%
Scored 2+ rate16.9%
Scored 3+ rate17.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score8.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate12.6%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate9.2%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.00
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.89
Portability Score-5.66
Rest days-11.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches13
Short Rest Points Per Match0.94
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO146.6
Current Opponent ELO-146.6
Current ELO Difference293.2
Expected score0.40
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Celtic

L
Falkirk2–0Celtic1 Nov · away
Pick: Celtic 64% · missed
D
Celtic2–2Dundee Utd28 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 68% · missed
W
Hibernian1–2Celtic25 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 50% · hit
L
Celtic1–2Celta Vigo22 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 48% · missed
W
Celtic7–1Heart Of Midlothian18 Oct · home
Pick: Celtic 66% · hit

Kilmarnock

D
Kilmarnock2–2ST Johnstone31 Oct · home
Pick: ST Johnstone 49% · missed
L
Dundee3–1Kilmarnock28 Oct · away
Pick: Dundee 59% · hit
L
Falkirk3–0Kilmarnock24 Oct · away
Pick: Falkirk 49% · hit
W
Kilmarnock3–2Motherwell17 Oct · home
Pick: Motherwell 43% · missed
L
Kilmarnock0–4Dundee Utd29 Aug · home
Pick: Kilmarnock 44% · missed

About this match

Celtic and Kilmarnock meet in Premiership on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Celtic Park, Glasgow. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Celtic win 75.2%, draw 14.1%, Kilmarnock win 10.7%. The pick is Celtic win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.6%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.