ScoreProb
Primera División Uruguay Round 14 2026

Cerro Largo vs Progreso

Cerro Largo Home · Elo 1,484
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Progreso Away · Elo 1,423
Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cerro Largo win
Cerro Largo winPick
53.1%
Draw
24.7%
Progreso win
22.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.6%
Under 2.554.4%

How much we know

Cerro Largo history60 matches
Progreso history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,777 matches.

Why Cerro Largo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cerro Largo are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,484 against 1,423. On rating alone Cerro Largo would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.98 goals a game over 60 matches for Cerro Largo, against 0.92 over 59 for Progreso.

  • Cerro Largo concede fewer

    Cerro Largo concede 1.15 a game, Progreso 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Cerro Largo matches, against 41% for Progreso. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cerro Largo
Progreso@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.8
ELO
1423.2
60
ELO · Matches
59
1483.8
Current Team ELO
1423.2
1423.2
Current Opponent ELO
1483.8
60.61
Current ELO Difference
-60.61
0.59
Expected score
0.41
60
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.93
Overperformance
45.14
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.17
PPG
1.02
28.3%
Win rate
25.4%
31.7%
Draw rate
25.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
49.2%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.5%
38.3%
Over 2.5 rate
40.7%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.3%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
30
1.07
PPG
0.97
24.1%
Win rate
20.0%
34.5%
Draw rate
36.7%
41.4%
Loss rate
43.3%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
0.92
65.0%
Scoring rate
62.7%
46.7%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.10
Goals for per game
0.77
69.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
51.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.05
Goals for per game
0.75
63.6%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.9%
BTTS rate
41.7%
60
History Matches
59
0.98
Goals Mean
0.92
0.96
Goals Std
0.87
65.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.7%
23.3%
Scored 2+ rate
23.7%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
5.1%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.47
71.7%
Conceding rate
78.0%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.33
75.9%
Conceding rate
76.7%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.54
72.7%
Conceding rate
91.7%
60
History Matches
59
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.47
1.00
Conceded Std
1.18
30.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.8%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
35.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.3%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.45
0.97
Stability score
4.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
59
12
Lead Matches
13
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
24
29.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.37
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.21
Rest days
81.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
26
Long Rest History Matches
27
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
24
1.23
PPG
0.67
31.8%
Win rate
16.7%
27.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.9%
Loss rate
66.7%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
31.8%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
22
Current Competition Matches
24
1.23
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.79
7
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.51
0.57
Portability PPG Range
1.33
69.26
Portability Score
49.35
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO60.61
PPG0.15
GF0.07
GA-0.32
PPG0.56
PPG0.10
PPG0.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-3.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate12.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.56
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.79
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.77
Portability Score19.91
Rest days1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.22
Current Team ELO60.61
Current Opponent ELO-60.61
Current ELO Difference121.2
Expected score0.17
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cerro Largo

L
Racing Montevideo3–1Cerro Largo31 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Montevideo 50% · hit
W
Cerro Largo2–0Boston River25 Oct · home
Pick: Cerro Largo 45% · hit
L
Liverpool Montevideo1–0Cerro Largo21 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool Montevideo 37% · hit
D
Cerro1–1Cerro Largo16 Oct · away
Pick: Cerro Largo 40% · missed
L
Danubio2–1Cerro Largo4 Oct · away
Pick: Danubio 39% · hit

Progreso

L
Progreso0–2Defensor Sporting1 Nov · home
Pick: Progreso 39% · missed
W
Wanderers0–1Progreso25 Oct · away
Pick: Wanderers 46% · missed
W
Progreso2–0Juventud17 Oct · home
Pick: Juventud 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cerro Largo and Progreso meet in Primera División on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla, Melo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Cerro Largo win 53.1%, draw 24.7%, Progreso win 22.2%. The pick is Cerro Largo win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.6%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.