ScoreProb
National League - South England National League South - 3 2026

Chelmsford City vs Ebbsfleet United

Chelmsford City Home · Elo 1,563
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ebbsfleet United Away · Elo 1,532
Melbourne Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chelmsford City win
Chelmsford City winPick
42.6%
Draw
26.2%
Ebbsfleet United win
31.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%

How much we know

Chelmsford City history78 matches
Ebbsfleet United history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chelmsford City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chelmsford City are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,563 against 1,532. On rating alone Chelmsford City would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Chelmsford City score more

    1.71 goals a game over 78 matches for Chelmsford City, against 1.51 over 79 for Ebbsfleet United.

  • Chelmsford City concede fewer

    Chelmsford City concede 1.27 a game, Ebbsfleet United 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Chelmsford City matches, against 59% for Ebbsfleet United. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chelmsford City
Ebbsfleet United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1562.7
ELO
1531.5
78
ELO · Matches
79
1562.7
Current Team ELO
1531.5
1531.5
Current Opponent ELO
1562.7
31.15
Current ELO Difference
-31.15
0.54
Expected score
0.46
78
History Matches
79
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
53.27
Overperformance
51.91
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
78
Matches
79
1.59
PPG
1.39
44.9%
Win rate
39.2%
24.4%
Draw rate
21.5%
30.8%
Loss rate
39.2%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.2%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
38
1.60
PPG
1.00
45.0%
Win rate
26.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
30.0%
Loss rate
52.6%
72.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
47.5%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
40
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.51
78.2%
Scoring rate
77.2%
56.4%
BTTS rate
55.7%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.26
80.0%
Scoring rate
65.8%
55.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
0.67
Goals for per game
—
66.7%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
78
History Matches
79
1.71
Goals Mean
1.51
1.59
Goals Std
1.22
78.2%
Scored 1+ rate
77.2%
42.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.6%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.7%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.46
69.2%
Conceding rate
74.7%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.76
65.0%
Conceding rate
86.8%
0.67
Goals against per game
—
66.7%
Conceding rate
—
78
History Matches
79
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.21
Conceded Std
1.17
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.8%
14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.7%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.8%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
21.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.8%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.2%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
25.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
78
History Matches
79
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.89
2.94
Stability score
3.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
78
Eligible Matches
77
32
Lead Matches
27
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
70.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.75
14
Trailing Matches
21
7.1%
Non-loss rate
9.5%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
78
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.24
Rest days
101.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.07
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
66
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
100.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
0
1.00
Current Competition PPG
—
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.66
50.63
Portability Score
49.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
78
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO31.15
PPG0.20
GF0.20
GA-0.19
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.58
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-0.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.20
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches3
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score1.57
Rest days-21.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match1.07
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.29
Current Team ELO31.15
Current Opponent ELO-31.15
Current ELO Difference62.30
Expected score0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chelmsford City

L
Chelmsford City0–2Farnham Town2 Nov · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 54% · missed
W
AFC Totton1–3Chelmsford City31 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
W
Dover0–1Chelmsford City27 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 37% · hit
D
Chelmsford City3–3Tonbridge Angels24 Oct · home
Pick: Chelmsford City 41% · missed
L
Wimborne Town1–0Chelmsford City17 Oct · away
Pick: Chelmsford City 42% · missed

Ebbsfleet United

W
Farnborough0–6Ebbsfleet United3 Nov · away
Pick: Farnborough 43% · missed
L
Truro City3–0Ebbsfleet United31 Oct · away
Pick: Truro City 46% · hit
W
Maidstone Utd1–3Ebbsfleet United27 Oct · away
Pick: Maidstone Utd 47% · missed
W
Ebbsfleet United4–0Maidenhead24 Oct · home
Pick: Ebbsfleet United 38% · hit
D
Ebbsfleet United2–2Horsham20 Oct · home
Pick: Horsham 41% · missed

About this match

Chelmsford City and Ebbsfleet United meet in National League - South on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Melbourne Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Chelmsford City win 42.6%, draw 26.2%, Ebbsfleet United win 31.2%. The pick is Chelmsford City win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.9%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.