ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nordost Germany Nordost - 16 2026

Chemnitzer FC vs Greifswalder FC

Chemnitzer FC Home · Elo 1,608
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Greifswalder FC Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chemnitzer FC win
Chemnitzer FC winPick
57.7%
Draw
20.5%
Greifswalder FC win
21.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Chemnitzer FC history68 matches
Greifswalder FC history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Chemnitzer FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chemnitzer FC are rated 62 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,546. On rating alone Chemnitzer FC would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Chemnitzer FC score more

    1.88 goals a game over 68 matches for Chemnitzer FC, against 1.63 over 65 for Greifswalder FC.

  • Defences are close

    Chemnitzer FC concede 1.22 a game, Greifswalder FC 1.22.

  • Chemnitzer FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Chemnitzer FC matches, against 51% for Greifswalder FC. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chemnitzer FC
Greifswalder FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1608.3
ELO
1545.9
68
ELO · Matches
65
1608.3
Current Team ELO
1545.9
1545.9
Current Opponent ELO
1608.3
62.40
Current ELO Difference
-62.40
0.59
Expected score
0.41
68
History Matches
65
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
56.88
Overperformance
53.29
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
65
1.71
PPG
1.42
45.6%
Win rate
35.4%
33.8%
Draw rate
35.4%
20.6%
Loss rate
29.2%
86.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
41.2%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
30
1.97
PPG
1.23
55.3%
Win rate
30.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
13.2%
Loss rate
36.7%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
44.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
38
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
1.63
86.8%
Scoring rate
73.8%
60.3%
BTTS rate
56.9%
2.24
Goals for per game
1.57
94.7%
Scoring rate
70.0%
63.2%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.20
83.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
80.0%
68
History Matches
65
1.88
Goals Mean
1.63
1.30
Goals Std
1.64
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
55.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.6%
2.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.22
Goals against per game
1.22
69.1%
Conceding rate
72.3%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.33
68.4%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.40
33.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
68
History Matches
65
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.11
Conceded Std
1.00
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.4%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.8%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
30.9%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
65
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.99
4.41
Stability score
0.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
64
23
Lead Matches
25
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
68.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.76
19
Trailing Matches
13
57.9%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.83
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
33
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
24
Long Rest History Matches
29
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
5
2.67
PPG
1.60
83.3%
Win rate
40.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
6
Current Competition Matches
5
2.67
Current Competition PPG
1.60
2.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.76
52.91
Portability Score
64.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO62.40
PPG0.29
GF0.25
GA0.01
PPG1.07
PPG0.74
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std-0.34
Scored 1+ rate12.9%
Scored 2+ rate17.4%
Scored 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.92
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score4.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate5.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate34.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.37
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.41
Portability Score-11.68
Rest days-10.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO62.40
Current Opponent ELO-62.40
Current ELO Difference124.8
Expected score0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chemnitzer FC

W
Tasmania Berlin3–4Chemnitzer FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 59% · hit
L
Chemnitzer FC1–2Magdeburg II24 Oct · home
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 64% · missed
D
BFC Dynamo1–1Chemnitzer FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 50% · missed
W
Lokomotive Leipzig0–2Chemnitzer FC25 Aug · away
Pick: Chemnitzer FC 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Greifswalder FC

D
Greifswalder FC1–1BSG Chemie Leipzig1 Nov · home
Pick: Greifswalder FC 57% · missed
L
Greifswalder FC2–3FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt 48% · hit
L
Magdeburg II4–2Greifswalder FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Magdeburg II 39% · hit
D
Tasmania Berlin2–2Greifswalder FC30 Aug · away
Pick: Greifswalder FC 49% · missed
W
Greifswalder FC2–1SV Babelsberg 0326 Aug · home
Pick: Greifswalder FC 56% · hit

About this match

Chemnitzer FC and Greifswalder FC meet in Regionalliga - Nordost on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chemnitzer FC win 57.7%, draw 20.5%, Greifswalder FC win 21.8%. The pick is Chemnitzer FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.