ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 Spain Group 16 - 10 2026

Comillas vs Haro Deportivo

Comillas Home · Elo 1,446
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Haro Deportivo Away · Elo 1,509
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Haro Deportivo win
Comillas win
32.2%
Draw
26.0%
Haro Deportivo winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.7%
No46.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%

How much we know

Comillas history49 matches
Haro Deportivo history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Haro Deportivo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Haro Deportivo are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,509 against 1,446. On rating alone Haro Deportivo would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Haro Deportivo score more

    1.04 goals a game over 49 matches for Comillas, against 1.50 over 50 for Haro Deportivo.

  • Defences are close

    Comillas concede 1.55 a game, Haro Deportivo 1.42.

  • Haro Deportivo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Comillas matches, against 62% for Haro Deportivo. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Comillas
Haro Deportivo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1445.9
ELO
1508.7
49
ELO · Matches
50
1445.9
Current Team ELO
1508.7
1508.7
Current Opponent ELO
1445.9
-62.78
Current ELO Difference
62.78
0.41
Expected score
0.59
49
History Matches
50
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
46.36
Overperformance
51.15
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.30
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.57
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
50
1.10
PPG
1.38
32.7%
Win rate
38.0%
12.2%
Draw rate
24.0%
55.1%
Loss rate
38.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.0%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.28
PPG
1.17
40.0%
Win rate
30.4%
8.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
52.0%
Loss rate
43.5%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.9%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.04
Goals for per game
1.50
65.3%
Scoring rate
78.0%
38.8%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.26
68.0%
Scoring rate
65.2%
40.0%
BTTS rate
52.2%
49
History Matches
50
1.04
Goals Mean
1.50
1.16
Goals Std
1.17
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.0%
18.4%
Scored 2+ rate
46.0%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.55
Goals against per game
1.42
69.4%
Conceding rate
72.0%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.52
68.0%
Conceding rate
78.3%
49
History Matches
50
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.42
1.44
Conceded Std
1.22
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.0%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
50
0.87
Result entropy
0.98
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.74
13.44
Stability score
1.89
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
50
11
Lead Matches
16
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
16
Trailing Matches
10
6.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
85.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
20
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.07
0.15
Portability PPG Range
0.14
86.84
Portability Score
87.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-62.78
PPG-0.28
GF-0.46
GA0.13
PPG0.11
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.28
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score11.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate4.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate6.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.72
Rest days96.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Current Team ELO-62.78
Current Opponent ELO62.78
Current ELO Difference-125.6
Expected score-0.18
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Comillas

L
Alfaro1–0Comillas1 Nov · away
Pick: Comillas 36% · missed
L
Comillas0–2Calasancio25 Oct · home
Pick: Comillas 67% · missed
D
Agoncillo2–2Comillas17 Oct · away
Pick: Agoncillo 49% · missed
L
La Calzada1–0Comillas4 Oct · away
Pick: La Calzada 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Haro Deportivo

W
Haro Deportivo2–1Varea1 Nov · home
Pick: Varea 43% · missed
W
Vianés1–3Haro Deportivo25 Oct · away
Pick: Haro Deportivo 41% · hit
W
Haro Deportivo5–1Casalarreina18 Oct · home
Pick: Haro Deportivo 70% · hit
W
Haro Deportivo2–1Anguiano4 Oct · home
Pick: Haro Deportivo 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Comillas and Haro Deportivo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Comillas win 32.2%, draw 26.0%, Haro Deportivo win 41.8%. The pick is Haro Deportivo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.1%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.