ScoreProb
Professional Development League England Regular Season 2026

Coventry City U21 vs Queens Park Rangers U21

Coventry City U21 Home · Elo 1,464
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Queens Park Rangers U21 Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Coventry City U21 win
Coventry City U21 winPick
41.3%
Draw
23.8%
Queens Park Rangers U21 win
34.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.4%
Under 2.529.6%

How much we know

Coventry City U21 history54 matches
Queens Park Rangers U21 history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Coventry City U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,464 against 1,477. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Queens Park Rangers U21 score more

    1.61 goals a game over 54 matches for Coventry City U21, against 1.87 over 60 for Queens Park Rangers U21.

  • Defences are close

    Coventry City U21 concede 2.07 a game, Queens Park Rangers U21 1.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    70% of Coventry City U21 matches, against 68% for Queens Park Rangers U21. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Coventry City U21
Queens Park Rangers U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.1
ELO
1476.9
54
ELO · Matches
60
1464.1
Current Team ELO
1476.9
1476.9
Current Opponent ELO
1464.1
-12.84
Current ELO Difference
12.84
0.48
Expected score
0.52
54
History Matches
60
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.07
Overperformance
49.30
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
2.50
2.50
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.82
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
60
1.35
PPG
1.28
40.7%
Win rate
35.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
46.3%
Loss rate
41.7%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
61.7%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.28
PPG
1.15
36.0%
Win rate
33.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
14.8%
44.0%
Loss rate
51.9%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
70.4%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.87
79.6%
Scoring rate
76.7%
64.8%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.85
80.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
68.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
60
1.61
Goals Mean
1.87
1.27
Goals Std
1.59
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
48.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.7%
20.4%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.07
Goals against per game
1.93
81.5%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.11
80.0%
Conceding rate
96.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
54
History Matches
60
2.07
Conceded Mean
1.93
1.86
Conceded Std
1.29
55.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
31.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
60
0.90
Result entropy
0.98
2.43
Goal Difference Std
2.24
10.14
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
59
22
Lead Matches
18
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.74
17
Trailing Matches
24
11.8%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.98
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.22
29
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
1
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.40
55.90
Portability Score
48.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-12.84
PPG0.07
GF-0.26
GA0.14
PPG-0.50
PPG0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score7.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.14
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate10.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.26
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.47
Portability Score7.84
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-12.84
Current Opponent ELO12.84
Current ELO Difference-25.68
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Coventry City U21

W
Coventry City U211–0Ipswich Town U2130 Oct · home
Pick: Coventry City U21 60% · hit
D
Cardiff City U212–2Coventry City U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff City U21 63% · missed
W
Coventry City U212–0Swansea City U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Coventry City U21 47% · hit
W
Bromley U211–2Coventry City U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Coventry City U21 48% · hit
W
Queens Park Rangers U211–5Coventry City U216 Oct · away
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 50% · missed

Queens Park Rangers U21

W
Bolton Wanderers Res.0–4Queens Park Rangers U212 Nov · away
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 40% · hit
L
Colchester United U215–1Queens Park Rangers U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 53% · missed
W
Queens Park Rangers U213–1Bristol City U2118 Oct · home
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 45% · hit
D
Queens Park Rangers U211–1Cardiff City U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Cardiff City U21 48% · missed
L
Queens Park Rangers U211–5Coventry City U216 Oct · home
Pick: Queens Park Rangers U21 50% · missed

About this match

Coventry City U21 and Queens Park Rangers U21 meet in Professional Development League on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Coventry City U21 win 41.3%, draw 23.8%, Queens Park Rangers U21 win 34.9%. The pick is Coventry City U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.4%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.