Cruzeiro U17 vs Corinthians U17
What we said before kickoff Result: Cruzeiro U17 win
Cruzeiro U17 win Result
34.9%
Draw
24.9%
Corinthians U17 winPick
40.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickCorinthians U17 win · 40.2%
What happenedCruzeiro U17 win · we gave it 34.9%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 59.3%
What happenedOver · 4 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.2%
What happenedYes · 3–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Cruzeiro U17 win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
35%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.9
on average A pick at 40% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
Cruzeiro U17 history34 matches
Corinthians U17 history31 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 00:30 UTC
- Full time: 3–1Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Corinthians U17 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Corinthians U17 are rated 32 Elo points higher
Elo 1,575 against 1,543. On rating alone Corinthians U17 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Corinthians U17 score more
1.88 goals a game over 34 matches for Cruzeiro U17, against 2.35 over 31 for Corinthians U17.
-
Corinthians U17 concede fewer
Cruzeiro U17 concede 1.29 a game, Corinthians U17 1.13.
-
Corinthians U17 games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Cruzeiro U17 matches, against 71% for Corinthians U17. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Corinthians U17@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1543.0
ELO
1575.3
34
ELO · Matches
31
1543.0
Current Team ELO
1575.3
1575.3
Current Opponent ELO
1543.0
-32.28
Current ELO Difference
32.28
0.45
Expected score
0.55
34
History Matches
31
0.06
Residual Mean
0.12
53.65
Overperformance
57.45
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals 90
34
Matches
31
1.62
PPG
1.87
47.1%
Win rate
54.8%
20.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
32.4%
Loss rate
22.6%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
71.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
15
1.94
PPG
1.53
56.3%
Win rate
46.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
13.3%
18.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
16
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.35
82.4%
Scoring rate
93.5%
52.9%
BTTS rate
61.3%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
37.5%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.62
91.7%
Scoring rate
92.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.2%
34
History Matches
31
1.88
Goals Mean
2.35
1.59
Goals Std
1.58
82.4%
Scored 1+ rate
93.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
61.3%
29.4%
Scored 3+ rate
41.9%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.13
67.6%
Conceding rate
64.5%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.07
56.3%
Conceding rate
53.3%
0.83
Goals against per game
0.92
50.0%
Conceding rate
53.8%
34
History Matches
31
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.13
Conceded Std
1.01
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.7%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.7%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
6.5%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
6.5%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
34
History Matches
31
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.06
Goal Difference Std
2.03
4.86
Stability score
8.84
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
26
Eligible Matches
29
9
Lead Matches
10
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
7
20.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
29
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.34
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
70.27
Rest days
70.27
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
13
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.44
Competition & season17 signals 170
12
Matches
13
2.00
PPG
2.00
58.3%
Win rate
61.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.4%
16.7%
Loss rate
23.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
12
Current Competition Matches
13
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.69
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.11
0.67
Portability PPG Range
0.22
62.83
Portability Score
81.82
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
34
Clean History Matches
31
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.28
PPG-0.25
GF-0.47
GA0.17
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.47
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-3.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.33
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.86
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-18.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Current Team ELO-32.28
Current Opponent ELO32.28
Current ELO Difference-64.55
Expected score-0.09
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-3.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cruzeiro U17
W
Cruzeiro U173–0Atlético Mineiro U1724 Oct · home
Pick: Cruzeiro U17 46% · hit D
Atlético Mineiro U170–0Cruzeiro U1721 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mineiro U17 46% · missed D
Fluminense U172–2Cruzeiro U1713 Oct · away
Pick: Fluminense U17 50% · missed W
Cruzeiro U172–0Fluminense U177 Oct · home
Pick: Fluminense U17 37% · missed D
Cruzeiro U171–1Flamengo RJ U171 Sep · home
Pick: Cruzeiro U17 39% · missed Corinthians U17
D
RB Bragantino U171–1Corinthians U1721 Oct · away
Pick: Corinthians U17 39% · missed W
Corinthians U173–1Flamengo RJ U1713 Oct · home
Pick: Corinthians U17 51% · hit L
Flamengo RJ U171–0Corinthians U177 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo RJ U17 39% · hit W
America MG U170–2Corinthians U1725 Aug · away
Pick: Corinthians U17 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Cruzeiro U17 and Corinthians U17 finished 3–1 in Brasileiro U17 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Cruzeiro U17 win 34.9%, draw 24.9%, Corinthians U17 win 40.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.