ScoreProb
FA WSL England Round 9 2026

Crystal Palace W vs Charlton Athletic W

Crystal Palace W Home · Elo 1,551
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Charlton Athletic W Away · Elo 1,561
VBS Community Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Crystal Palace W win
Crystal Palace W winPick
46.3%
Draw
22.1%
Charlton Athletic W win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%

How much we know

Crystal Palace W history41 matches
Charlton Athletic W history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Crystal Palace W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,551 against 1,561. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.61 goals a game over 41 matches for Crystal Palace W, against 1.72 over 36 for Charlton Athletic W.

  • Charlton Athletic W concede fewer

    Crystal Palace W concede 1.76 a game, Charlton Athletic W 0.92.

  • Crystal Palace W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    68% of Crystal Palace W matches, against 39% for Charlton Athletic W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Crystal Palace W
Charlton Athletic W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.3
ELO
1560.7
41
ELO · Matches
36
1551.3
Current Team ELO
1560.7
1560.7
Current Opponent ELO
1551.3
-9.44
Current ELO Difference
9.44
0.49
Expected score
0.51
41
History Matches
36
0.07
Residual Mean
0.10
54.44
Overperformance
56.16
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.60
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.00
2.30
Goals for per game
0.80
0.90
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
36
1.49
PPG
1.92
43.9%
Win rate
52.8%
17.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
39.0%
Loss rate
13.9%
80.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
43.9%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
15
1.62
PPG
1.93
47.6%
Win rate
53.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
13.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
21
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.61
Goals for per game
1.72
78.0%
Scoring rate
86.1%
58.5%
BTTS rate
52.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
85.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
61.9%
BTTS rate
53.3%
41
History Matches
36
1.61
Goals Mean
1.72
1.34
Goals Std
1.77
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.1%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.76
Goals against per game
0.92
78.0%
Conceding rate
58.3%
1.76
Goals against per game
0.80
76.2%
Conceding rate
53.3%
41
History Matches
36
1.76
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.60
Conceded Std
1.06
46.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
24.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
0.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.9%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
36
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.16
6.21
Stability score
11.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
36
12
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.95
13
Trailing Matches
11
23.1%
Non-loss rate
63.6%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
190.0
Rest days
169.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.55
Portability PPG Range
0.64
43.71
Portability Score
63.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-9.44
PPG-0.43
GF-0.11
GA0.84
PPG-0.31
PPG2.00
PPG1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate8.1%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate4.7%
Scored 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.93
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.84
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate24.1%
Conceded 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches5
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-4.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.83
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.41
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.90
Portability Score-19.45
Rest days20.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-9.44
Current Opponent ELO9.44
Current ELO Difference-18.89
Expected score-0.03
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.57

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Crystal Palace W

L
Brighton W2–1Crystal Palace W1 Nov · away
Pick: Brighton W 46% · hit
L
London City Lionesses W4–2Crystal Palace W28 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace W 42% · missed
L
Crystal Palace W1–3Chelsea W25 Oct · home
Pick: Chelsea W 51% · hit
L
Southampton W3–2Crystal Palace W21 Oct · away
Pick: Crystal Palace W 41% · missed
L
Crystal Palace W0–1West Ham W18 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace W 45% · missed

Charlton Athletic W

L
Charlton Athletic W0–6Chelsea W1 Nov · home
Pick: Chelsea W 48% · hit
L
Charlton Athletic W1–2West Ham W28 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton Athletic W 44% · missed
L
Birmingham City W1–0Charlton Athletic W25 Oct · away
Pick: Birmingham City W 40% · hit
W
Charlton Athletic W2–0Bristol City W21 Oct · home
Pick: Charlton Athletic W 51% · hit
L
Charlton Athletic W1–3Manchester United W18 Oct · home
Pick: Manchester United W 46% · hit

About this match

Crystal Palace W and Charlton Athletic W meet in FA WSL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at VBS Community Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Crystal Palace W win 46.3%, draw 22.1%, Charlton Athletic W win 31.6%. The pick is Crystal Palace W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.7%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.