ScoreProb
Primera División Costa Rica Round 16 2026

CS Herediano vs Inter San Carlos

CS Herediano Home · Elo 1,577
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inter San Carlos Away · Elo 1,665
Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inter San Carlos win
CS Herediano win
35.6%
Draw
27.4%
Inter San Carlos winPick
37.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.1%
No54.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.0%
Under 2.561.0%

How much we know

CS Herediano history72 matches
Inter San Carlos history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 00:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Inter San Carlos are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Inter San Carlos are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,665 against 1,577. On rating alone Inter San Carlos would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Inter San Carlos score more

    1.35 goals a game over 72 matches for CS Herediano, against 1.63 over 65 for Inter San Carlos.

  • Inter San Carlos concede fewer

    CS Herediano concede 1.03 a game, Inter San Carlos 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    42% of CS Herediano matches, against 42% for Inter San Carlos. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
CS Herediano
Inter San Carlos
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.0
ELO
1664.6
72
ELO · Matches
65
1577.0
Current Team ELO
1664.6
1664.6
Current Opponent ELO
1577.0
-87.64
Current ELO Difference
87.64
0.38
Expected score
0.62
72
History Matches
65
0.06
Residual Mean
0.12
54.61
Overperformance
59.30
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.90
0.60
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.12
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
65
1.76
PPG
2.08
51.4%
Win rate
60.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
27.7%
26.4%
Loss rate
12.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
18.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
33
2.05
PPG
1.64
61.5%
Win rate
42.4%
20.5%
Draw rate
36.4%
17.9%
Loss rate
21.2%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
39
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.63
77.8%
Scoring rate
86.2%
44.4%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.64
Goals for per game
1.45
84.6%
Scoring rate
81.8%
48.7%
BTTS rate
60.6%
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
72
History Matches
65
1.35
Goals Mean
1.63
1.04
Goals Std
1.05
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.2%
40.3%
Scored 2+ rate
52.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.64
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
0.82
61.1%
Conceding rate
53.8%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.06
56.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
72
History Matches
65
1.03
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.11
Conceded Std
0.93
25.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
46.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.29
6.43
Stability score
16.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
29
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
86.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.91
19
Trailing Matches
10
26.3%
Non-loss rate
70.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.94
Rest days
77.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.82
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
44
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
20.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.40
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
9
Competition Season Count
4
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.08
1.76
Portability PPG Range
0.18
45.00
Portability Score
85.53
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-87.64
PPG-0.31
GF-0.28
GA0.21
PPG-1.60
PPG0.41
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate8.4%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate5.0%
Conceded 3+ rate4.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches7
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-9.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate13.8%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.44
Trailing Win Rate0.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.80
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.53
Portability PPG Range1.58
Portability Score-40.53
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-87.64
Current Opponent ELO87.64
Current ELO Difference-175.3
Expected score-0.25
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

CS Herediano

L
Sporting San Jose1–0CS Herediano1 Nov · away
Pick: Sporting San Jose 47% · hit
W
CS Herediano3–1CS Cartagines25 Oct · home
Pick: CS Herediano 39% · hit
W
Perez Zeledon0–3CS Herediano18 Oct · away
Pick: Perez Zeledon 41% · missed
D
LD Alajuelense1–1CS Herediano15 Oct · away
Pick: LD Alajuelense 62% · missed
L
CS Cartagines1–0CS Herediano30 Aug · away
Pick: CS Cartagines 53% · hit

Inter San Carlos

L
Inter San Carlos2–3Escorpiones Belén31 Oct · home
Pick: Inter San Carlos 64% · missed
L
Puntarenas FC3–1Inter San Carlos25 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 45% · missed
L
Inter San Carlos2–3LD Alajuelense18 Oct · home
Pick: LD Alajuelense 44% · hit
W
San Carlos1–2Inter San Carlos14 Oct · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 48% · hit
L
Sporting San Jose2–0Inter San Carlos29 Aug · away
Pick: Inter San Carlos 36% · missed

About this match

CS Herediano and Inter San Carlos meet in Primera División on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 00:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Carlos Alvarado, Heredia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: CS Herediano win 35.6%, draw 27.4%, Inter San Carlos win 37.0%. The pick is Inter San Carlos win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.0%. Both teams to score: 45.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.