ScoreProb
NB II Hungary Round 13 2026

Csakvar vs Karcag SE

Csakvar Home · Elo 1,500
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Karcag SE Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Karcag SE win
Csakvar win
35.0%
Draw
24.2%
Karcag SE winPick
40.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.0%
Under 2.544.0%

How much we know

Csakvar history57 matches
Karcag SE history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Karcag SE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,495. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.30 goals a game over 57 matches for Csakvar, against 1.40 over 55 for Karcag SE.

  • Defences are close

    Csakvar concede 1.44 a game, Karcag SE 1.35.

  • Csakvar games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Csakvar matches, against 45% for Karcag SE. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Csakvar
Karcag SE
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.5
ELO
1495.4
57
ELO · Matches
55
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1495.4
1495.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
5.12
Current ELO Difference
-5.12
0.51
Expected score
0.49
57
History Matches
55
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.98
Overperformance
49.21
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.45
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
55
1.32
PPG
1.47
35.1%
Win rate
38.2%
26.3%
Draw rate
32.7%
38.6%
Loss rate
29.1%
77.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.1%
54.4%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
29
1.33
PPG
1.34
37.5%
Win rate
31.0%
20.8%
Draw rate
41.4%
41.7%
Loss rate
27.6%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
34.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
24
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
71.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
50.9%
BTTS rate
56.4%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.17
79.2%
Scoring rate
65.5%
58.3%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
55
1.30
Goals Mean
1.40
1.20
Goals Std
1.30
71.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
38.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.4%
10.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.35
71.9%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.31
79.2%
Conceding rate
69.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
55
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.21
Conceded Std
1.12
47.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.31
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.57
1.13
Stability score
0.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
55
19
Lead Matches
12
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
17
Trailing Matches
13
23.5%
Non-loss rate
46.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
80.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.93
Portability PPG Range
1.37
61.02
Portability Score
45.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO5.12
PPG-0.16
GF-0.10
GA0.09
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.01
PPG-0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate2.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate8.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.32
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate7.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.40
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score15.53
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO5.12
Current Opponent ELO-5.12
Current ELO Difference10.23
Expected score0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Csakvar

L
BVSC1–0Csakvar31 Oct · away
Pick: Csakvar 40% · missed
L
Csakvar0–4Mezokovesd-zsory25 Oct · home
Pick: Mezokovesd-zsory 38% · hit
L
Tiszakecske FC1–0Csakvar17 Oct · away
Pick: Tiszakecske FC 57% · hit
L
Soroksar6–0Csakvar30 Aug · away
Pick: Soroksar 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Karcag SE

L
Karcag SE0–3Mezokovesd-zsory1 Nov · home
Pick: Karcag SE 44% · missed
L
Kecskeméti TE5–2Karcag SE24 Oct · away
Pick: Kecskeméti TE 50% · hit
L
Karcag SE1–2Szeged 201118 Oct · home
Pick: Karcag SE 50% · missed
W
Karcag SE2–1Fehérvár FC30 Aug · home
Pick: Karcag SE 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Csakvar and Karcag SE meet in NB II on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Csakvar win 35.0%, draw 24.2%, Karcag SE win 40.8%. The pick is Karcag SE win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.0%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.