ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - VFV B Belgium VFV B - 11 2026

Diegem Sport vs Cappellen

Diegem Sport Home · Elo 1,467
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cappellen Away · Elo 1,415
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Diegem Sport win
Diegem Sport winPick
52.1%
Draw
16.1%
Cappellen win
31.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes69.8%
No30.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%

How much we know

Diegem Sport history44 matches
Cappellen history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Diegem Sport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Diegem Sport are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,467 against 1,415. On rating alone Diegem Sport would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Diegem Sport score more

    1.89 goals a game over 44 matches for Diegem Sport, against 1.42 over 43 for Cappellen.

  • Diegem Sport concede fewer

    Diegem Sport concede 2.05 a game, Cappellen 2.56.

  • Cappellen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Diegem Sport matches, against 81% for Cappellen. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diegem Sport
Cappellen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1466.9
ELO
1415.5
44
ELO · Matches
43
1466.9
Current Team ELO
1415.5
1415.5
Current Opponent ELO
1466.9
51.40
Current ELO Difference
-51.40
0.57
Expected score
0.43
44
History Matches
43
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.10
47.67
Overperformance
43.34
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
3.60
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.50
3.50
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
3.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
43
1.27
PPG
0.93
34.1%
Win rate
27.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
9.3%
40.9%
Loss rate
62.8%
93.2%
Over 1.5 rate
93.0%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
81.4%
54.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.2%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.22
PPG
0.82
34.8%
Win rate
22.7%
17.4%
Draw rate
13.6%
47.8%
Loss rate
63.6%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
81.8%
52.2%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
2.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.89
Goals for per game
1.42
86.4%
Scoring rate
69.8%
75.0%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.55
78.3%
Scoring rate
68.2%
65.2%
BTTS rate
63.6%
44
History Matches
43
1.89
Goals Mean
1.42
1.56
Goals Std
1.37
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
46.5%
29.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.05
Goals against per game
2.56
88.6%
Conceding rate
88.4%
2.09
Goals against per game
2.73
87.0%
Conceding rate
95.5%
44
History Matches
43
2.05
Conceded Mean
2.56
1.58
Conceded Std
1.74
52.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
67.4%
34.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
48.8%
2.09
Venue Conceded Mean
2.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
4.5%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
11.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
43
0.98
Result entropy
0.79
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.54
1.78
Stability score
20.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
33
7
Lead Matches
6
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
15
25.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
130.9
Rest days
98.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.16
1.07
Portability PPG Range
0.32
48.39
Portability Score
75.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO51.40
PPG0.34
GF0.47
GA-0.51
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate15.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.61
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches1
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-19.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-27.43
Rest days32.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO51.40
Current Opponent ELO-51.40
Current ELO Difference102.8
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Diegem Sport

L
Tempo Overijse5–2Diegem Sport31 Oct · away
Pick: Diegem Sport 44% · missed
D
Diegem Sport2–2Rupel Boom25 Oct · home
Pick: Rupel Boom 47% · missed
L
Diegem Sport1–4Nijlen21 Oct · home
Pick: Diegem Sport 63% · missed
W
Diegem Sport1–0Tongeren4 Oct · home
Pick: Diegem Sport 54% · hit
D
Racing Mechelen1–1Diegem Sport30 Aug · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 43% · missed

Cappellen

D
Cappellen0–0Wellen31 Oct · home
Pick: Cappellen 49% · missed
W
Racing Mechelen1–3Cappellen24 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 47% · missed
L
Cappellen0–6Bocholt17 Oct · home
Pick: Cappellen 44% · missed
D
Cappellen3–3De Kempen29 Aug · home
Pick: Cappellen 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Diegem Sport and Cappellen meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Diegem Sport win 52.1%, draw 16.1%, Cappellen win 31.8%. The pick is Diegem Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.2%. Both teams to score: 69.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.