ScoreProb
Erovnuli Liga Georgia Round 32 2026

Dila vs Dinamo Tbilisi

Dila Home · Elo 1,581
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Tbilisi Away · Elo 1,545
Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium, Gori Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dila win
Dila winPick
41.9%
Draw
27.0%
Dinamo Tbilisi win
31.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Dila history75 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dila are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dila are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,545. On rating alone Dila would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 75 matches for Dila, against 1.38 over 73 for Dinamo Tbilisi.

  • Dila concede fewer

    Dila concede 1.01 a game, Dinamo Tbilisi 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Dila matches, against 48% for Dinamo Tbilisi. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dila
Dinamo Tbilisi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1581.1
ELO
1544.6
75
ELO · Matches
73
1581.1
Current Team ELO
1544.6
1544.6
Current Opponent ELO
1581.1
36.54
Current ELO Difference
-36.54
0.55
Expected score
0.45
75
History Matches
73
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
53.80
Overperformance
52.25
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.96
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.16
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
73
1.85
PPG
1.49
57.3%
Win rate
39.7%
13.3%
Draw rate
30.1%
29.3%
Loss rate
30.1%
64.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.9%
48.0%
Over 2.5 rate
47.9%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.92
PPG
1.27
58.3%
Win rate
32.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
29.7%
25.0%
Loss rate
37.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
47.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
1.38
74.7%
Scoring rate
68.5%
42.7%
BTTS rate
53.4%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.27
77.8%
Scoring rate
59.5%
41.7%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.57
71.4%
Scoring rate
66.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
61.9%
75
History Matches
73
1.49
Goals Mean
1.38
1.26
Goals Std
1.28
74.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.6%
17.3%
Scored 3+ rate
13.7%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.01
Goals against per game
1.15
61.3%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.32
61.1%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.19
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.2%
75
History Matches
73
1.01
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.14
Conceded Std
1.28
24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.3%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.8%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
25.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
25.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.5%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
73
0.86
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.68
13.77
Stability score
0.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
70
19
Lead Matches
21
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.94
15
Trailing Matches
16
26.7%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
13.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.00
Rest days
85.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
57
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.51
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
1.43
PPG
1.62
42.9%
Win rate
42.9%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.9%
Loss rate
23.8%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
21
Current Competition Matches
21
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.62
0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.38
8
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.42
Portability PPG Range
0.79
49.96
Portability Score
60.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO36.54
PPG0.36
GF0.11
GA-0.14
PPG-0.19
PPG0.65
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate1.4%
Scored 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate11.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.7%
Conceded 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.69
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score12.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.19
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-10.95
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO36.54
Current Opponent ELO-36.54
Current ELO Difference73.09
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dila

L
Torpedo Kutaisi2–1Dila2 Nov · away
Pick: Torpedo Kutaisi 44% · hit
L
Dinamo Batumi3–1Dila28 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Batumi 40% · hit
L
Meshakhte2–1Dila24 Oct · away
Pick: Dila 49% · missed
L
Dila0–2Saburtalo19 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 35% · hit
L
Dinamo Tbilisi2–1Dila31 Aug · away
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi 43% · hit

Dinamo Tbilisi

D
Dinamo Tbilisi0–0Saburtalo31 Oct · home
Pick: Saburtalo 36% · missed
W
Rustavi0–2Dinamo Tbilisi23 Oct · away
Pick: Rustavi 42% · missed
W
Dinamo Tbilisi3–1Spaeri18 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi 49% · hit
W
Saburtalo1–2Dinamo Tbilisi4 Oct · away
Pick: Saburtalo 50% · missed
W
Dinamo Tbilisi2–1Dila31 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Tbilisi 43% · hit

About this match

Dila and Dinamo Tbilisi meet in Erovnuli Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Tengiz Burjanadze Stadium, Gori. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dila win 41.9%, draw 27.0%, Dinamo Tbilisi win 31.1%. The pick is Dila win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.