ScoreProb
Second League A - Division A Gold Russia Fall Season Gold - 17 2026

Dinamo Kirov vs Dinamo Bryansk

Dinamo Kirov Home · Elo 1,559
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Bryansk Away · Elo 1,613
VyatSShOR Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Kirov win
Dinamo Kirov winPick
47.5%
Draw
28.5%
Dinamo Bryansk win
24.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%

How much we know

Dinamo Kirov history65 matches
Dinamo Bryansk history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Kirov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Bryansk are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,613 against 1,559. On rating alone Dinamo Bryansk would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.35 goals a game over 65 matches for Dinamo Kirov, against 1.43 over 54 for Dinamo Bryansk.

  • Dinamo Bryansk concede fewer

    Dinamo Kirov concede 1.14 a game, Dinamo Bryansk 0.87.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Dinamo Kirov matches, against 46% for Dinamo Bryansk. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dinamo Kirov
Dinamo Bryansk
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1559.2
ELO
1613.3
65
ELO · Matches
54
1559.2
Current Team ELO
1613.3
1613.3
Current Opponent ELO
1559.2
-54.06
Current ELO Difference
54.06
0.42
Expected score
0.58
65
History Matches
54
0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
53.58
Overperformance
57.22
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
54
1.51
PPG
2.00
38.5%
Win rate
61.1%
35.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
26.2%
Loss rate
22.2%
66.2%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
28
1.73
PPG
1.68
48.5%
Win rate
50.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
17.9%
24.2%
Loss rate
32.1%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
33
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.43
75.4%
Scoring rate
79.6%
47.7%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.25
78.8%
Scoring rate
78.6%
45.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.83
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
16.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
54
1.35
Goals Mean
1.43
1.21
Goals Std
1.08
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
79.6%
33.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
0.87
58.5%
Conceding rate
53.7%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.07
54.5%
Conceding rate
64.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
54
1.14
Conceded Mean
0.87
1.32
Conceded Std
1.04
32.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.2%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.4%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
54
0.99
Result entropy
0.85
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.69
1.16
Stability score
15.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
54
13
Lead Matches
21
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
95.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.97
15
Trailing Matches
12
26.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
74.88
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
23
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.33
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
16.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
8
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.72
Portability PPG Range
0.51
63.18
Portability Score
70.21
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.06
PPG-0.49
GF-0.07
GA0.27
PPG-0.33
PPG0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate9.7%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches11
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-13.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate3.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-7.03
Rest days-3.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.87
Current Team ELO-54.06
Current Opponent ELO54.06
Current ELO Difference-108.1
Expected score-0.15
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dinamo Kirov

D
Rodina Moskva II1–1Dinamo Kirov31 Oct · away
Pick: Rodina Moskva II 43% · missed
W
Dinamo Kirov6–1Novosibirsk24 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Kirov 42% · hit
W
Dinamo Vladivostok2–3Dinamo Kirov18 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Vladivostok 37% · missed
L
Ska-khabarovsk2–0Dinamo Kirov14 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Kirov 41% · missed
D
Mashuk-KMV1–1Dinamo Kirov4 Oct · away
Pick: Mashuk-KMV 41% · missed

Dinamo Bryansk

L
Dinamo Bryansk0–1FK Sokol Saratov31 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Bryansk 44% · missed
W
Volgar Astrakhan0–1Dinamo Bryansk24 Oct · away
Pick: Volgar Astrakhan 44% · missed
L
Dinamo Bryansk1–4Kaluga18 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Bryansk 42% · missed
L
Novosibirsk2–0Dinamo Bryansk4 Oct · away
Pick: Novosibirsk 48% · hit
D
Dinamo Bryansk1–1Volgar Astrakhan30 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Bryansk 39% · missed

About this match

Dinamo Kirov and Dinamo Bryansk meet in Second League A - Division A Gold on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at VyatSShOR. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Dinamo Kirov win 47.5%, draw 28.5%, Dinamo Bryansk win 24.0%. The pick is Dinamo Kirov win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.3%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.