ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Diyala vs Al Minaa Basra

Diyala Home · Elo 1,494
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Minaa Basra Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Diyala win
Diyala winPick
41.3%
Draw
31.8%
Al Minaa Basra win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.3%
Under 2.559.7%

How much we know

Diyala history63 matches
Al Minaa Basra history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Diyala are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Diyala are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,462. On rating alone Diyala would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.03 goals a game over 63 matches for Diyala, against 1.00 over 61 for Al Minaa Basra.

  • Diyala concede fewer

    Diyala concede 1.11 a game, Al Minaa Basra 1.26.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Diyala matches, against 31% for Al Minaa Basra. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diyala
Al Minaa Basra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.7
ELO
1462.2
63
ELO · Matches
61
1493.7
Current Team ELO
1462.2
1462.2
Current Opponent ELO
1493.7
31.50
Current ELO Difference
-31.50
0.55
Expected score
0.45
63
History Matches
61
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.26
Overperformance
47.72
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.20
0.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
61
1.37
PPG
1.05
36.5%
Win rate
24.6%
27.0%
Draw rate
31.1%
36.5%
Loss rate
44.3%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
31.1%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
1.67
PPG
0.97
46.7%
Win rate
22.6%
26.7%
Draw rate
29.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
48.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
54.8%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
29.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.13
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.03
Goals for per game
1.00
71.4%
Scoring rate
62.3%
47.6%
BTTS rate
44.3%
1.17
Goals for per game
0.81
80.0%
Scoring rate
58.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.03
Goals Mean
1.00
0.87
Goals Std
1.04
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
25.4%
Scored 2+ rate
24.6%
4.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.26
68.3%
Conceding rate
72.1%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.23
63.3%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
63
History Matches
61
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.04
Conceded Std
1.10
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.47
0.86
Stability score
2.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
61
15
Lead Matches
16
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.67
21
Trailing Matches
17
28.6%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
71.92
Rest days
81.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
45
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.98
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
1
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
100.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
1
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.01
76.99
Portability Score
99.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.50
PPG0.32
GF0.03
GA-0.15
PPG0.33
PPG0.70
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.03
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.15
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-1.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.30
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate17.1%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate16.8%
Trailing Win Rate9.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-22.30
Rest days-9.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO31.50
Current Opponent ELO-31.50
Current ELO Difference63.01
Expected score0.09
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.54
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Diyala

D
Newroz0–0Diyala24 Oct · away
Pick: Newroz 38% · missed
W
Diyala2–0Naft Maysan16 Oct · home
Pick: Diyala 54% · hit
D
Diyala3–3Al-Jolan SC29 Aug · home
Pick: Diyala 53% · missed
D
Zakho2–2Diyala25 Aug · away
Pick: Zakho 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Minaa Basra

W
Al Minaa Basra2–1Al-Karma24 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Karma 36% · missed
L
Newroz2–0Al Minaa Basra16 Oct · away
Pick: Newroz 38% · hit
L
Erbil2–0Al Minaa Basra31 Aug · away
Pick: Erbil 57% · hit
W
Al Minaa Basra3–0Gharraf26 Aug · home
Pick: Al Minaa Basra 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Diyala and Al Minaa Basra meet in Iraqi League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Diyala win 41.3%, draw 31.8%, Al Minaa Basra win 26.9%. The pick is Diyala win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.3%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.