ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Al Talaba vs Ghaz Al Shamal

Al Talaba Home · Elo 1,558
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ghaz Al Shamal Away · Elo 1,499
Al Talaba Stadium, Baghdad Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Talaba win
Al Talaba winPick
44.9%
Draw
34.9%
Ghaz Al Shamal win
20.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.8%
No58.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.0%
Under 2.553.0%

How much we know

Al Talaba history61 matches
Ghaz Al Shamal history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 13:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Talaba are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Talaba are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,558 against 1,499. On rating alone Al Talaba would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Al Talaba score far more

    1.36 goals a game over 61 matches for Al Talaba, against 0.50 over 2 for Ghaz Al Shamal.

  • Defences are close

    Al Talaba concede 0.97 a game, Ghaz Al Shamal 1.00.

  • Al Talaba games more often go over 2.5 goals

    41% of Al Talaba matches, against 0% for Ghaz Al Shamal. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Talaba
Ghaz Al Shamal
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1558.1
ELO
1498.6
61
ELO · Matches
2
1558.1
Current Team ELO
1498.6
1498.6
Current Opponent ELO
1558.1
59.46
Current ELO Difference
-59.46
0.58
Expected score
0.42
61
History Matches
2
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.11
52.87
Overperformance
48.96
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
0.80
PPG
0.50
1.40
Goals for per game
0.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
0.80
PPG
0.50
1.30
Goals for per game
0.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.50
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
2
1.62
PPG
0.50
44.3%
Win rate
0.0%
29.5%
Draw rate
50.0%
26.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
70.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
41.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
2
1.71
PPG
0.50
46.4%
Win rate
0.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
50.0%
21.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
28
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
0.50
78.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.50
82.1%
Scoring rate
50.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
2
1.36
Goals Mean
0.50
1.01
Goals Std
0.50
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
14.8%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.00
67.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.00
64.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
2
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.85
Conceded Std
0.00
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
32.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
2
0.98
Result entropy
0.63
1.20
Goal Difference Std
0.50
2.43
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
2
27
Lead Matches
1
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
0.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.33
12
Trailing Matches
0
25.0%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
75.82
Rest days
72.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
39
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.77
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
0.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.11
Portability PPG Std
—
0.21
Portability PPG Range
—
82.44
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO59.46
PPG1.12
GF0.86
GA-0.03
PPG0.00
PPG1.21
PPG0.30
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches59
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate35.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches59
Goals Mean0.86
Goals Std0.51
Scored 1+ rate28.7%
Scored 2+ rate41.0%
Scored 3+ rate14.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches59
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.85
Clean-sheet rate32.8%
Conceded 2+ rate24.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.92
History Matches59
Result entropy0.34
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score-34.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.14
Eligible Matches59
Lead Matches26
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.43
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches59
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days3.03
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches39
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO59.46
Current Opponent ELO-59.46
Current ELO Difference118.9
Expected score0.17
History Matches59
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance3.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Talaba

D
Karbala2–2Al Talaba30 Oct · away
Pick: Al Talaba 41% · missed
W
Al Kahrabaa0–1Al Talaba16 Oct · away
Pick: Al Talaba 49% · hit
D
Al Talaba0–0Naft31 Aug · home
Pick: Al Talaba 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ghaz Al Shamal

W
Ghaz Al Shamal1–0Al Zawra'a18 Oct · home
Pick: Al Zawra'a 50% · missed
W
Gharraf0–1Ghaz Al Shamal30 Aug · away
Pick: Gharraf 54% · missed
D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–1Ghaz Al Shamal25 Aug · away
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Talaba and Ghaz Al Shamal meet in Iraqi League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 13:45 UTC. The match is played at Al Talaba Stadium, Baghdad. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Al Talaba win 44.9%, draw 34.9%, Ghaz Al Shamal win 20.2%. The pick is Al Talaba win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.0%. Both teams to score: 41.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.