ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Ost Austria Ost - 15 2026

Donau vs Gloggnitz

Donau Home · Elo 1,498
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gloggnitz Away · Elo 1,561
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gloggnitz win
Donau win
34.5%
Draw
19.0%
Gloggnitz winPick
46.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.7%
No39.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%

How much we know

Donau history58 matches
Gloggnitz history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Gloggnitz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gloggnitz are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,498. On rating alone Gloggnitz would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.72 goals a game over 58 matches for Donau, against 1.68 over 53 for Gloggnitz.

  • Defences are close

    Donau concede 1.69 a game, Gloggnitz 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Donau matches, against 57% for Gloggnitz. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Donau
Gloggnitz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1497.7
ELO
1560.8
58
ELO · Matches
53
1497.7
Current Team ELO
1560.8
1560.8
Current Opponent ELO
1497.7
-63.13
Current ELO Difference
63.13
0.41
Expected score
0.59
58
History Matches
53
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.06
49.03
Overperformance
54.30
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.30
3.30
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
53
1.52
PPG
1.58
43.1%
Win rate
43.4%
22.4%
Draw rate
28.3%
34.5%
Loss rate
28.3%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
60.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.6%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.77
PPG
1.35
53.8%
Win rate
34.6%
15.4%
Draw rate
30.8%
30.8%
Loss rate
34.6%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
53.8%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.68
84.5%
Scoring rate
79.2%
60.3%
BTTS rate
56.6%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.69
88.5%
Scoring rate
76.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
53
1.72
Goals Mean
1.68
1.44
Goals Std
1.48
84.5%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
48.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
20.7%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.69
Goals against per game
1.64
69.0%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.58
Goals against per game
1.85
57.7%
Conceding rate
73.1%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
58
History Matches
53
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.78
Conceded Std
1.53
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.5%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
15.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
53
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.24
Goal Difference Std
2.06
3.05
Stability score
1.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
52
20
Lead Matches
16
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.90
21
Trailing Matches
13
33.3%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
29
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
26
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.70
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.83
Portability PPG Range
1.05
41.63
Portability Score
55.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-63.13
PPG-0.07
GF0.04
GA0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG0.42
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate5.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches5
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score1.06
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.11
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate2.6%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.79
Portability Score-13.96
Rest days0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO-63.13
Current Opponent ELO63.13
Current ELO Difference-126.3
Expected score-0.18
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Donau

W
Leobendorf1–3Donau31 Oct · away
Pick: Leobendorf 58% · missed
W
Donau8–1Wienerberg24 Oct · home
Pick: Donau 58% · hit
L
Fach-Donaufeld1–0Donau17 Oct · away
Pick: Fach-Donaufeld 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gloggnitz

W
Gloggnitz3–0Favoritner AC31 Oct · home
Pick: Gloggnitz 47% · hit
D
Leobendorf1–1Gloggnitz23 Oct · away
Pick: Leobendorf 54% · missed
D
Gloggnitz1–1Oberwart16 Oct · home
Pick: Oberwart 49% · missed
D
Wiener Viktoria1–1Gloggnitz29 Aug · away
Pick: Wiener Viktoria 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Donau and Gloggnitz meet in Regionalliga - Ost on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Donau win 34.5%, draw 19.0%, Gloggnitz win 46.5%. The pick is Gloggnitz win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.2%. Both teams to score: 60.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.