Doxa vs Olympiakos
What we said before kickoff Result: Olympiakos win
Doxa win
27.1%
Draw
28.4%
Olympiakos winPick Result
44.6%
How our picks did
Settled automatically from the final score. Every miss stays on the record.
Match result
Our pickOlympiakos win · 44.6%
What happenedOlympiakos win · we gave it 44.6%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.0%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.2%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Missed How surprising was it?
Result: Olympiakos win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
45%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.2
on average A pick at 45% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
1'
GoalK. Irakleous
21'
GoalM. Praxitelous
31'
Penalty missedK. Irakleous
Both teams to score
Yes51.2%
No48.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.0%
Under 2.550.0%
How much we know
Doxa history43 matches
Olympiakos history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–2One of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically from the final score.5 Nov · 03:19 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Olympiakos are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Olympiakos are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,517 against 1,474. On rating alone Olympiakos would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.37 goals a game over 43 matches for Doxa, against 1.25 over 48 for Olympiakos.
-
Olympiakos concede fewer
Doxa concede 1.47 a game, Olympiakos 1.21.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of Doxa matches, against 46% for Olympiakos. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 15 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Olympiakos@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1474.5
ELO
1517.4
43
ELO · Matches
48
1474.5
Current Team ELO
1517.4
1517.4
Current Opponent ELO
1474.5
-42.97
Current ELO Difference
42.97
0.44
Expected score
0.56
43
History Matches
48
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.88
Overperformance
51.04
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals 90
43
Matches
48
1.28
PPG
1.50
37.2%
Win rate
41.7%
16.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
46.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.9%
53.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
25
1.33
PPG
1.36
38.1%
Win rate
40.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
16.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
44.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
21
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.25
72.1%
Scoring rate
72.9%
51.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.20
57.1%
Scoring rate
72.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
52.0%
43
History Matches
48
1.37
Goals Mean
1.25
1.14
Goals Std
1.01
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
11.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.47
Goals against per game
1.21
74.4%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.36
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.0%
43
History Matches
48
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.30
Conceded Std
1.15
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
43
History Matches
48
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.63
7.21
Stability score
1.92
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
48
10
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.77
17
Trailing Matches
11
17.6%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
193.1
Rest days
173.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.45
Portability PPG Range
1.12
69.05
Portability Score
47.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
43
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-42.97
PPG-0.22
GF0.12
GA0.26
PPG-0.03
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.9%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate6.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.2%
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score5.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.18
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate11.6%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.6%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score21.90
Rest days20.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-42.97
Current Opponent ELO42.97
Current ELO Difference-85.94
Expected score-0.12
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Doxa
W
Doxa4–1Iraklis Yerolakkou30 Oct · home
Pick: Doxa 42% · hit D
ASIL Lysi1–1Doxa24 Oct · away
Pick: Doxa 40% · missed W
Doxa3–0Ayia Napa17 Oct · home
Pick: Doxa 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Olympiakos
L
Karmiotissa1–0Olympiakos30 Oct · away
Pick: Karmiotissa 38% · hit D
Olympiakos1–1Krasava Ypsonas24 Oct · home
Pick: Olympiakos 43% · missed D
Omonia Nicosia2–2Olympiakos19 Oct · away
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 66% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Doxa and Olympiakos finished 0–2 in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Doxa win 27.1%, draw 28.4%, Olympiakos win 44.6%. One of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.