Drita vs Prishtina
What we said before kickoff Result: Prishtina win
Drita winPick
43.2%
Draw
25.2%
Prishtina win Result
31.5%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickDrita win · 43.2%
What happenedPrishtina win · we gave it 31.5%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 52.7%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 54.7%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Prishtina win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
32%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.2
on average A pick at 43% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
7'
GoalB. Baftiu
GoalB. Krasniqi
19' 51'
GoalL. Kryeziu
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
No45.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%
How much we know
Drita history84 matches
Prishtina history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.2%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Drita are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Drita are rated 64 Elo points higher
Elo 1,593 against 1,529. On rating alone Drita would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.46 goals a game over 84 matches for Drita, against 1.46 over 69 for Prishtina.
-
Defences are close
Drita concede 1.17 a game, Prishtina 1.20.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Drita matches, against 49% for Prishtina. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Prishtina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1593.0
ELO
1528.7
84
ELO · Matches
69
1593.0
Current Team ELO
1528.7
1528.7
Current Opponent ELO
1593.0
64.30
Current ELO Difference
-64.30
0.59
Expected score
0.41
84
History Matches
69
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.46
Overperformance
51.65
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.40
3.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals 90
84
Matches
69
1.60
PPG
1.51
46.4%
Win rate
39.1%
20.2%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
27.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals 100
42
Matches
34
1.98
PPG
1.29
61.9%
Win rate
35.3%
11.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
26.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
73.8%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
42
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.46
Goals for per game
1.46
78.6%
Scoring rate
75.4%
47.6%
BTTS rate
50.7%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.29
83.3%
Scoring rate
67.6%
42.9%
BTTS rate
44.1%
5.00
Goals for per game
4.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
69
1.46
Goals Mean
1.46
1.19
Goals Std
1.28
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.4%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.1%
15.5%
Scored 3+ rate
20.3%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.20
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.90
Goals against per game
1.38
57.1%
Conceding rate
67.6%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
84
History Matches
69
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.13
Conceded Std
1.11
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
0.90
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.6%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
84
History Matches
69
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.72
4.81
Stability score
0.92
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
83
Eligible Matches
69
23
Lead Matches
24
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.79
26
Trailing Matches
21
19.2%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
3.8%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.10
Rest days
80.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.88
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.71
45
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.51
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
11
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.76
48.47
Portability Score
41.74
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
84
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO64.30
PPG0.09
GF0.00
GA-0.04
PPG0.00
PPG0.68
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate3.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score3.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.34
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score6.73
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Short Rest Points Per Match0.17
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Current Team ELO64.30
Current Opponent ELO-64.30
Current ELO Difference128.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Drita
W
Prishtina0–3Drita25 Oct · away
Pick: Prishtina 38% · missed W
Ballkani0–1Drita13 Oct · away
Pick: Drita 45% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Prishtina
L
Prishtina0–3Drita25 Oct · home
Pick: Prishtina 38% · missed W
Ballkani0–1Prishtina19 Oct · away
Pick: Prishtina 40% · hit D
Malisheva1–1Prishtina15 Oct · away
Pick: Malisheva 46% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Drita and Prishtina finished 1–2 in Superliga on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Drita win 43.2%, draw 25.2%, Prishtina win 31.5%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.