ScoreProb
Premier Division Ireland Final 2026

Drogheda United vs UCD

Drogheda United Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
UCD Away · Elo 1,495
Tallaght Stadium, Dublin Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Drogheda United win
Drogheda United winPick
43.3%
Draw
30.6%
UCD win
26.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.7%
No52.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.2%
Under 2.553.8%

How much we know

Drogheda United history73 matches
UCD history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 9 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Drogheda United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,506 against 1,495. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • UCD score more

    1.21 goals a game over 73 matches for Drogheda United, against 1.41 over 71 for UCD.

  • Defences are close

    Drogheda United concede 1.29 a game, UCD 1.35.

  • UCD games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Drogheda United matches, against 55% for UCD. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Drogheda United
UCD@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.6
ELO
1495.5
73
ELO · Matches
71
1505.6
Current Team ELO
1495.5
1495.5
Current Opponent ELO
1505.6
10.16
Current ELO Difference
-10.16
0.51
Expected score
0.49
73
History Matches
71
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.24
Overperformance
49.39
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.94
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
71
1.26
PPG
1.45
28.8%
Win rate
42.3%
39.7%
Draw rate
18.3%
31.5%
Loss rate
39.4%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
76.1%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.9%
26.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.42
PPG
1.38
33.3%
Win rate
40.5%
41.7%
Draw rate
16.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
43.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.1%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.21
Goals for per game
1.41
75.3%
Scoring rate
73.2%
54.8%
BTTS rate
50.7%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.38
77.8%
Scoring rate
75.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.11
Goals for per game
—
71.4%
Scoring rate
—
57.1%
BTTS rate
—
73
History Matches
71
1.21
Goals Mean
1.41
1.07
Goals Std
1.25
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
27.4%
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
16.9%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.35
67.1%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.49
58.3%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.61
Goals against per game
—
71.4%
Conceding rate
—
73
History Matches
71
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.16
Conceded Std
1.31
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.3%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
—
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
—
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
71
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.96
0.87
Stability score
5.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
71
23
Lead Matches
22
47.8%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.86
23
Trailing Matches
22
47.8%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.95
Rest days
77.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
37
Normal Rest History Matches
52
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
28
Matches
0
1.00
PPG
—
21.4%
Win rate
—
35.7%
Draw rate
—
42.9%
Loss rate
—
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
28
Current Competition Matches
0
1.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.67
Portability PPG Range
1.24
64.60
Portability Score
46.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO10.16
PPG-0.19
GF-0.20
GA-0.06
PPG0.04
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate2.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.67
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-4.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.34
Lead Points Retention-0.27
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate25.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches28
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score18.03
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO10.16
Current Opponent ELO-10.16
Current ELO Difference20.31
Expected score0.03
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Drogheda United

W
Drogheda United2–0Galway United30 Oct · home
Pick: Drogheda United 43% · hit
L
Waterford3–1Drogheda United23 Oct · away
Pick: Waterford 46% · hit
W
Drogheda United2–0Derry City16 Oct · home
Pick: Derry City 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UCD

W
UCD2–0Longford Town27 Oct · home
Pick: UCD 55% · hit
W
Longford Town0–2UCD24 Oct · away
Pick: UCD 40% · hit
W
Wexford2–5UCD16 Oct · away
Pick: UCD 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Drogheda United and UCD meet in Premier Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Tallaght Stadium, Dublin. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Drogheda United win 43.3%, draw 30.6%, UCD win 26.1%. The pick is Drogheda United win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.2%. Both teams to score: 47.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.