Dukla Banská Bystrica vs AS Trencin
Dukla Banská Bystrica
LIVE · 43'
1–1
Half time 1–1
Wed 4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
AS Trencin
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: AS Trencin win
Dukla Banská Bystrica win
35.8%
Draw
25.4%
AS Trencin winPick
38.7%
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
3'
GoalL. Mikulaj
GoalT. Slebodnik
28' 33'
Yellow cardT. Hajovsky
Yellow card
40' Our pre-match picks, right now
Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.
Match resultPick: AS Trencin win · 38.7%
Level: 1–1 Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 54.2%
Already in Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 58.5%
Needs 1 more goal The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.
Both teams to score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%
How much we know
Dukla Banská Bystrica history74 matches
AS Trencin history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why AS Trencin are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,531 against 1,515. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.51 goals a game over 74 matches for Dukla Banská Bystrica, against 1.46 over 71 for AS Trencin.
-
Defences are close
Dukla Banská Bystrica concede 1.42 a game, AS Trencin 1.54.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
57% of Dukla Banská Bystrica matches, against 59% for AS Trencin. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dukla Banská Bystrica
AS Trencin
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.3
ELO
1515.1
74
ELO · Matches
71
1531.3
Current Team ELO
1515.1
1515.1
Current Opponent ELO
1531.3
16.12
Current ELO Difference
-16.12
0.52
Expected score
0.48
74
History Matches
71
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.47
Overperformance
50.00
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.90
Goals against per game
1.80
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals 90
74
Matches
71
1.43
PPG
1.35
41.9%
Win rate
38.0%
17.6%
Draw rate
21.1%
40.5%
Loss rate
40.8%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.2%
37.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
40
1.53
PPG
1.25
44.4%
Win rate
35.0%
19.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
36.1%
Loss rate
45.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
36
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.46
74.3%
Scoring rate
69.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
49.3%
1.69
Goals for per game
1.55
75.0%
Scoring rate
67.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
6.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
74
History Matches
71
1.51
Goals Mean
1.46
1.31
Goals Std
1.60
74.3%
Scored 1+ rate
69.0%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.0%
24.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.69
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.54
70.3%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.63
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
0.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
74
History Matches
71
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.25
Conceded Std
1.31
43.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.5%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
74
History Matches
71
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.21
5.70
Stability score
3.35
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
73
Eligible Matches
71
27
Lead Matches
16
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
93.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.96
26
Trailing Matches
26
23.1%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.00
Rest days
73.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
6.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.62
1.98
Portability PPG Range
1.90
41.47
Portability Score
44.59
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
74
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO16.12
PPG0.08
GF0.05
GA-0.12
PPG0.00
PPG0.28
PPG0.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate5.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.82
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score2.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-3.13
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO16.12
Current Opponent ELO-16.12
Current ELO Difference32.24
Expected score0.05
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Dukla Banská Bystrica
L
Dukla Banská Bystrica0–2Dunajska Streda1 Nov · home
Pick: Dunajska Streda 65% · hit D
Slovan Bratislava2–2Dukla Banská Bystrica24 Oct · away
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 70% · missed W
Dukla Banská Bystrica1–0Podbrezová18 Oct · home
Pick: Podbrezová 50% · missed W
Vranov nad Topľou0–2Dukla Banská Bystrica14 Oct · away
Pick: Dukla Banská Bystrica 56% · hit D
Dukla Banská Bystrica2–2Komárno29 Aug · home
Pick: Dukla Banská Bystrica 40% · missed AS Trencin
L
AS Trencin0–5FK Košice31 Oct · home
Pick: FK Košice 47% · hit L
AS Trencin0–2Slovan Bratislava28 Oct · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 64% · hit D
Komárno0–0AS Trencin25 Oct · away
Pick: Komárno 46% · missed W
Skalica0–2AS Trencin17 Oct · away
Pick: Skalica 52% · missed W
Lokomotíva Košice0–1AS Trencin14 Oct · away
Pick: AS Trencin 56% · hit About this match
Dukla Banská Bystrica and AS Trencin meet in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Dukla Banská Bystrica win 35.8%, draw 25.4%, AS Trencin win 38.7%. The pick is AS Trencin win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.