ScoreProb
Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 14 2026

Emmen vs MVV

Emmen Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
MVV Away · Elo 1,429
De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Emmen win
Emmen winPick
47.7%
Draw
25.7%
MVV win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Emmen history62 matches
MVV history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Emmen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Emmen are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,429. On rating alone Emmen would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Emmen score more

    1.60 goals a game over 62 matches for Emmen, against 1.04 over 70 for MVV.

  • Defences are close

    Emmen concede 1.81 a game, MVV 1.73.

  • Emmen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Emmen matches, against 53% for MVV. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Emmen
MVV
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.6
ELO
1429.3
62
ELO · Matches
70
1478.6
Current Team ELO
1429.3
1429.3
Current Opponent ELO
1478.6
49.31
Current ELO Difference
-49.31
0.57
Expected score
0.43
62
History Matches
70
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.05
48.02
Overperformance
45.78
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
70
1.29
PPG
1.01
37.1%
Win rate
25.7%
17.7%
Draw rate
24.3%
45.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.3%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
46.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.6%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
37
1.57
PPG
0.59
46.4%
Win rate
10.8%
17.9%
Draw rate
27.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
62.2%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
62.2%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
28
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.04
71.0%
Scoring rate
55.7%
56.5%
BTTS rate
44.3%
1.89
Goals for per game
0.65
82.1%
Scoring rate
37.8%
60.7%
BTTS rate
35.1%
3.33
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
70
1.60
Goals Mean
1.04
1.46
Goals Std
1.18
71.0%
Scored 1+ rate
55.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
21.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
0.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
1.73
83.9%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.92
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.8%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
62
History Matches
70
1.81
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.32
Conceded Std
1.48
51.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.1%
29.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
62.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
62.2%
16.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
70
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.88
5.91
Stability score
5.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
68
15
Lead Matches
9
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.78
27
Trailing Matches
27
22.2%
Non-loss rate
14.8%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.97
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.91
Rest days
75.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.60
38
Normal Rest History Matches
49
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
17
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.72
Portability PPG Std
0.87
2.00
Portability PPG Range
2.50
41.08
Portability Score
36.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO49.31
PPG0.28
GF0.55
GA0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.98
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.44
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate15.3%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate8.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.59
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.52
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate13.3%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate7.4%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.50
Portability Score4.63
Rest days3.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.23
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO49.31
Current Opponent ELO-49.31
Current ELO Difference98.61
Expected score0.14
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Emmen

W
Groningen0–2Emmen29 Oct · away
Pick: Groningen 46% · missed
W
Vitesse0–2Emmen23 Oct · away
Pick: Vitesse 41% · missed
W
Emmen2–1Almere City FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 37% · missed
L
VVV Venlo4–0Emmen30 Aug · away
Pick: VVV Venlo 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

MVV

L
MVV1–2VVV Venlo31 Oct · home
Pick: MVV 47% · missed
L
MVV0–3Excelsior28 Oct · home
Pick: MVV 46% · missed
D
Den Bosch2–2MVV23 Oct · away
Pick: Den Bosch 51% · missed
L
MVV1–5Heracles18 Oct · home
Pick: Heracles 40% · hit
L
KRC Genk II6–0MVV25 Aug · away
Pick: KRC Genk II 56% · hit

About this match

Emmen and MVV meet in Eerste Divisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:45 UTC. The match is played at De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Emmen win 47.7%, draw 25.7%, MVV win 26.7%. The pick is Emmen win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.