Enisey vs Nizhny Novgorod
What we said before kickoff Result: Nizhny Novgorod win
Enisey winPick
46.3%
Draw
26.1%
Nizhny Novgorod win Result
27.6%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickEnisey win · 46.3%
What happenedNizhny Novgorod win · we gave it 27.6%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 55.7%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.6%
What happenedYes · 1–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Nizhny Novgorod win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
28%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.6
on average A pick at 46% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalAleksandr Lomakin · assist David Kokoev
9' 36'
GoalGleb Popolitov
45'
GoalVladimir Ignatenko · assist Gleb Popolitov
SubstitutionAndrey Okladnikov off · Luka Ratković on
46' SubstitutionNikita Shershov off · Vladislav lutashev on
57' 58'
SubstitutionIvan Bober off · Vladislav Sarveli on
58'
SubstitutionVladimir Ignatenko off · Vyacheslav Grulev on
67'
SubstitutionMamadou Maiga off · Nikita Ermakov on
67'
SubstitutionGleb Popolitov off · Timofey Komissarov on
77'
SubstitutionArtem Sokolov off · Andrey Ivlev on
SubstitutionDavid Kokoev off · Vladislav Kravtsov on
78' 90'
Yellow cardNikita Kakkoev
Yellow cardAleksandr Kanaplin
90+3' Lineups
Enisey 4-3-3 · Nizhny Novgorod 4-1-4-1
39Sorokin 33Maslovskiy 22Gyurdzhan 7Chukanov 25Shershov 17Kokoev 8Kanaplin 90Lomakin 87Mazurin 75Okladnikov 81Pechura 98Imamov 17Shilnikov 22Kakkoev 4Evgenjev 3Koledin 8Maiga 7Bober 78Kalinskiy 18Sokolov 11Popolitov 91Ignatenko
Substitutes · Enisey · Coach A. Tikhonov
- 27L. Ratković
- 1M. Oparin
- 15A. Balakhonov
- 62V. Kravtsov
- 36V. Lutashev
- 77R. Ogienko
Substitutes · Nizhny Novgorod · Coach Vadim Garanin
- 94A. Timofeev
- 77A. Ivlev
- 19N. Ermakov
- 27V. Grulev
- 93S. Lapinskiy
- 9V. Sarveli
- 81N. Generalov
- 80V. Tsarukyan
- 25S. Karič
- 2V. Aleksandrov
- 66Y. Gudkov
- 72T. Komissarov
Match stats
Enisey left, Nizhny Novgorod right
Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%
How much we know
Enisey history76 matches
Nizhny Novgorod history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 0 h ahead2 Nov · 07:01 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
- Kickoff4 Nov · 08:00 UTC
- Full time: 1–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Enisey are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Enisey are rated 61 Elo points higher
Elo 1,561 against 1,500. On rating alone Enisey would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Nizhny Novgorod score more
1.21 goals a game over 76 matches for Enisey, against 1.35 over 69 for Nizhny Novgorod.
-
Enisey concede fewer
Enisey concede 1.12 a game, Nizhny Novgorod 1.64.
-
Nizhny Novgorod games more often go over 2.5 goals
45% of Enisey matches, against 64% for Nizhny Novgorod. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nizhny Novgorod@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1560.6
ELO
1499.6
76
ELO · Matches
69
1560.6
Current Team ELO
1499.6
1499.6
Current Opponent ELO
1560.6
61.00
Current ELO Difference
-61.00
0.59
Expected score
0.41
76
History Matches
69
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
53.11
Overperformance
50.50
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.40
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
3.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
3.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.20
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
69
1.50
PPG
1.16
39.5%
Win rate
33.3%
31.6%
Draw rate
15.9%
28.9%
Loss rate
50.7%
65.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
63.8%
21.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
38
Matches
33
1.84
PPG
0.76
50.0%
Win rate
21.2%
34.2%
Draw rate
12.1%
15.8%
Loss rate
66.7%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
36.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
38
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.35
60.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
39.5%
BTTS rate
58.0%
1.34
Goals for per game
0.94
68.4%
Scoring rate
57.6%
36.8%
BTTS rate
54.5%
76
History Matches
69
1.21
Goals Mean
1.35
1.36
Goals Std
1.39
60.5%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
32.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
1.64
60.5%
Conceding rate
87.0%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
97.0%
76
History Matches
69
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.17
Conceded Std
1.08
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.2%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.4%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.0%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
39.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.0%
31.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.4%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
69
0.99
Result entropy
0.91
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.80
Stability score
8.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
74
Eligible Matches
67
22
Lead Matches
23
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
69.6%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.72
11
Trailing Matches
23
9.1%
Non-loss rate
17.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
74
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.99
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
72.75
Rest days
71.63
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.25
42
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.53
Portability PPG Range
2.13
71.27
Portability Score
40.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO61.00
PPG0.34
GF-0.14
GA-0.52
PPG1.08
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate47.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate26.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches7
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-7.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate16.8%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.53
Portability PPG Range-1.60
Portability Score30.54
Rest days1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.62
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Current Team ELO61.00
Current Opponent ELO-61.00
Current ELO Difference122.0
Expected score0.17
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.42
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Enisey
L
Ska-khabarovsk3–0Enisey24 Oct · away
Pick: Enisey 44% · missed W
Enisey2–0Kaluga14 Oct · home
Pick: Enisey 47% · hit D
Enisey0–0Shinnik Yaroslavl30 Aug · home
Pick: Enisey 41% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Nizhny Novgorod
W
Nizhny Novgorod4–0Arsenal Tula30 Oct · home
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 59% · hit W
FC UFA0–1Nizhny Novgorod24 Oct · away
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 47% · hit W
Nizhny Novgorod4–0Shinnik Yaroslavl14 Oct · home
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 51% · hit D
Nizhny Novgorod2–2Volga Ulyanovsk30 Aug · home
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 59% · missed W
Nizhny Novgorod4–2Ska-khabarovsk24 Aug · home
Pick: Nizhny Novgorod 65% · hit Match report
Enisey and Nizhny Novgorod finished 1–2 in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 07:01 UTC, before kickoff: Enisey win 46.3%, draw 26.1%, Nizhny Novgorod win 27.6%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.