ScoreProb
NPFL Nigeria Round 12 2027

Enugu Rangers vs Kwara United

Enugu Rangers Home · Elo 1,577
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kwara United Away · Elo 1,494
Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, Enugu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Enugu Rangers win
36.8%
DrawPick
37.5%
Kwara United win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.0%
No56.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.1%
Under 2.560.9%

How much we know

Enugu Rangers history54 matches
Kwara United history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Enugu Rangers are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,577 against 1,494. On rating alone Enugu Rangers would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Enugu Rangers score more

    1.22 goals a game over 54 matches for Enugu Rangers, against 0.98 over 60 for Kwara United.

  • Enugu Rangers concede fewer

    Enugu Rangers concede 0.83 a game, Kwara United 1.02.

  • Enugu Rangers games more often go over 2.5 goals

    39% of Enugu Rangers matches, against 30% for Kwara United. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Enugu Rangers
Kwara United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1577.3
ELO
1494.1
54
ELO · Matches
60
1577.3
Current Team ELO
1494.1
1494.1
Current Opponent ELO
1577.3
83.23
Current ELO Difference
-83.23
0.62
Expected score
0.38
54
History Matches
60
0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
55.48
Overperformance
49.92
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.80
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
60
1.59
PPG
1.28
44.4%
Win rate
35.0%
25.9%
Draw rate
23.3%
29.6%
Loss rate
41.7%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
2.32
PPG
0.38
71.4%
Win rate
3.4%
17.9%
Draw rate
27.6%
10.7%
Loss rate
69.0%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
39.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.9%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.05
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
0.98
64.8%
Scoring rate
55.0%
37.0%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.59
78.6%
Scoring rate
37.9%
32.1%
BTTS rate
37.9%
54
History Matches
60
1.22
Goals Mean
0.98
1.18
Goals Std
1.06
64.8%
Scored 1+ rate
55.0%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.83
Goals against per game
1.02
51.9%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.66
39.3%
Conceding rate
82.8%
54
History Matches
60
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.01
Conceded Std
1.12
24.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.7%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.66
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
62.1%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
60.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
62.1%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.53
Stability score
2.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
60
20
Lead Matches
17
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.92
10
Trailing Matches
15
10.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
36
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.03
60.08
Portability Score
96.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO83.23
PPG0.31
GF0.24
GA-0.18
PPG1.94
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate43.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate9.8%
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.47
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score0.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.56
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate11.8%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.32
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-36.61
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO83.23
Current Opponent ELO-83.23
Current ELO Difference166.5
Expected score0.24
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Enugu Rangers

D
Rivers United1–1Enugu Rangers1 Nov · away
Pick: Rivers United 45% · missed
L
MC Alger3–0Enugu Rangers23 Oct · away
Pick: MC Alger 53% · hit
W
Enugu Rangers2–0MC Alger18 Oct · home
Pick: MC Alger 43% · missed
W
Enugu Rangers3–1Abia Warriors4 Oct · home
Pick: Enugu Rangers 38% · hit
D
Enugu Rangers1–1Katsina United30 Aug · home
Pick: Enugu Rangers 48% · missed

Kwara United

L
Kwara United1–2Bendel Insurance1 Nov · home
Pick: Kwara United 41% · missed
D
Barau FC1–1Kwara United25 Oct · away
Pick: Barau FC 34% · missed
W
Kwara United2–1Ranchers Bees4 Oct · home
Pick: Kwara United 64% · hit
D
Kwara United2–2Kano Pillars30 Aug · home
Pick: Kwara United 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Enugu Rangers and Kwara United meet in NPFL on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium, Enugu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Enugu Rangers win 36.8%, draw 37.5%, Kwara United win 25.7%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%. Both teams to score: 44.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.