ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Erbil vs Gharraf

Erbil Home · Elo 1,629
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gharraf Away · Elo 1,476
Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Erbil win
Erbil winPick
58.6%
Draw
25.0%
Gharraf win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.3%
No55.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.543.0%
Under 2.557.0%

How much we know

Erbil history63 matches
Gharraf history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Erbil are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Erbil are rated 153 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,629 against 1,476. On rating alone Erbil would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Erbil score more

    1.37 goals a game over 63 matches for Erbil, against 1.05 over 39 for Gharraf.

  • Defences are close

    Erbil concede 1.02 a game, Gharraf 1.13.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Erbil matches, against 36% for Gharraf. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Erbil
Gharraf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.5
ELO
1476.2
63
ELO · Matches
39
1629.5
Current Team ELO
1476.2
1476.2
Current Opponent ELO
1629.5
153.3
Current ELO Difference
-153.3
0.71
Expected score
0.29
63
History Matches
39
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.03
57.79
Overperformance
47.89
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.70
Goals against per game
1.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
39
1.78
PPG
1.15
52.4%
Win rate
28.2%
20.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
27.0%
Loss rate
41.0%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
56.4%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
20
1.69
PPG
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
35.0%
31.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
32
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.05
71.4%
Scoring rate
59.0%
44.4%
BTTS rate
43.6%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.15
68.8%
Scoring rate
70.0%
46.9%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
39
1.37
Goals Mean
1.05
1.09
Goals Std
1.24
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
59.0%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
23.1%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.13
65.1%
Conceding rate
71.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.20
71.9%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
63
History Matches
39
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.00
Conceded Std
0.94
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.0%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
28.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
39
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.42
7.35
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
39
18
Lead Matches
11
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.76
11
Trailing Matches
6
36.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.92
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
46
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
16
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.52
Portability PPG Std
—
1.20
Portability PPG Range
—
49.07
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO153.3
PPG0.62
GF0.31
GA-0.11
PPG0.33
PPG0.59
PPG1.00
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches24
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate12.5%
Scored 2+ rate24.5%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.16
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches24
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches24
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score6.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate19.7%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches24
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO153.3
Current Opponent ELO-153.3
Current ELO Difference306.6
Expected score0.41
History Matches24
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Erbil

W
Erbil2–0Al Minaa Basra31 Aug · home
Pick: Erbil 57% · hit
W
Al Karkh0–1Erbil25 Aug · away
Pick: Erbil 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gharraf

W
Al Karkh1–2Gharraf31 Oct · away
Pick: Al Karkh 42% · missed
W
Karbala1–2Gharraf16 Oct · away
Pick: Gharraf 48% · hit
L
Gharraf0–1Ghaz Al Shamal30 Aug · home
Pick: Gharraf 54% · missed
L
Al Minaa Basra3–0Gharraf26 Aug · away
Pick: Al Minaa Basra 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Erbil and Gharraf meet in Iraqi League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Erbil win 58.6%, draw 25.0%, Gharraf win 16.3%. The pick is Erbil win. Over 2.5 goals: 43.0%. Both teams to score: 44.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.