Erbil vs Kazma
What we said before kickoff Result: Erbil win
Erbil winPick Result
54.9%
Draw
21.7%
Kazma win
23.4%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickErbil win · 54.9%
What happenedErbil win · we gave it 54.9%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 52.1%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Missed Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 50.5%
What happenedNo · 6–0
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Erbil win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
55%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 1.8
on average A pick at 55% is expected to miss about 5 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
GoalI. Eze · assist S. Ali
28' 37'
Yellow cardA. Al Fahad
GoalMiullen · assist A. Jamous
45+1' 46'
SubstitutionH. Kankone off · F. Al Subaie on
46'
SubstitutionM. Anter off · B. Al Barazi on
GoalMiullen · assist I. Eze
48' 57'
Yellow cardN. Falah
GoalMiullen · assist I. Eze
58' 60'
SubstitutionS. Al Khaldi off · M. Al Shammari on
60'
SubstitutionN. Falah off · O. Al Shammari on
67'
Yellow cardO. Al Shammari
GoalMiullen · assist H. Hassan
75' 77'
SubstitutionK. Al Mutairi off · M. Al Abdulsalam on
SubstitutionA. Jamous off · A. Sadeq Mahmoud on
79' SubstitutionMiullen off · S. Mansor on
80' SubstitutionM. Al Taay off · B. Mahdi on
80' SubstitutionA. Raad off · H. Raed on
80' GoalI. Bayesh · assist S. Mansor
83' SubstitutionS. Ali off · N. Mohammed on
84' 90'
Yellow cardT. Knoll
Both teams to score
Yes49.5%
No50.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.547.9%
Under 2.552.1%
How much we know
Erbil history63 matches
Kazma history38 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full time: 6–0Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Erbil are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Erbil are rated 85 Elo points higher
Elo 1,629 against 1,545. On rating alone Erbil would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.37 goals a game over 63 matches for Erbil, against 1.39 over 38 for Kazma.
-
Defences are close
Erbil concede 1.02 a game, Kazma 1.11.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
37% of Erbil matches, against 39% for Kazma. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1629.5
ELO
1544.6
63
ELO · Matches
38
1629.5
Current Team ELO
1544.6
1544.6
Current Opponent ELO
1629.5
84.85
Current ELO Difference
-84.85
0.62
Expected score
0.38
63
History Matches
38
0.10
Residual Mean
0.07
57.79
Overperformance
54.56
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
63
Matches
38
1.78
PPG
1.47
52.4%
Win rate
36.8%
20.6%
Draw rate
36.8%
27.0%
Loss rate
26.3%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.5%
25.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
17
1.69
PPG
1.35
50.0%
Win rate
35.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
31.3%
Loss rate
35.3%
65.6%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
32
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.39
71.4%
Scoring rate
78.9%
44.4%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.31
Goals for per game
1.18
68.8%
Scoring rate
76.5%
46.9%
BTTS rate
52.9%
63
History Matches
38
1.37
Goals Mean
1.39
1.09
Goals Std
1.06
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
78.9%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
13.2%
1.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.02
Goals against per game
1.11
65.1%
Conceding rate
65.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.24
71.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
63
History Matches
38
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.00
Conceded Std
1.12
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
7.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.2%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
21.1%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
34.9%
Clean-sheet rate
34.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
63
History Matches
38
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.41
7.35
Stability score
1.05
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
63
Eligible Matches
38
18
Lead Matches
17
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
64.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.71
11
Trailing Matches
6
36.4%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
71.06
Rest days
128.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.89
49.07
Portability Score
57.75
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
63
Clean History Matches
38
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO84.85
PPG0.30
GF-0.03
GA-0.09
PPG0.33
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches25
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate5.5%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score6.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate24.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate1.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-8.68
Rest days-56.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO84.85
Current Opponent ELO-84.85
Current ELO Difference169.7
Expected score0.24
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance3.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Erbil
W
Erbil2–0Al Minaa Basra31 Aug · home
Pick: Erbil 57% · hit W
Al Karkh0–1Erbil25 Aug · away
Pick: Erbil 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Kazma
W
Kazma2–1Al Sulaibikhat23 Oct · home
Pick: Kazma 46% · hit W
Al Jahra0–1Kazma19 Oct · away
Pick: Kazma 47% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
Erbil and Kazma finished 6–0 in AGCFF Gulf Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 2–0 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: Erbil win 54.9%, draw 21.7%, Kazma win 23.4%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.