ScoreProb
Reserve League Argentina Round 16 2026

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 vs Ferro 2

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 Home · Elo 1,437
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ferro 2 Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ferro 2 win
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win
32.8%
Draw
30.5%
Ferro 2 winPick
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.6%
No53.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 history22 matches
Ferro 2 history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ferro 2 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,437 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ferro 2 score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 22 matches for Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2, against 1.05 over 37 for Ferro 2.

  • Defences are close

    Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 concede 1.55 a game, Ferro 2 1.62.

  • Ferro 2 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    27% of Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 matches, against 54% for Ferro 2. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2
Ferro 2
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1436.7
ELO
1447.5
22
ELO · Matches
37
1436.7
Current Team ELO
1447.5
1447.5
Current Opponent ELO
1436.7
-10.88
Current ELO Difference
10.88
0.48
Expected score
0.52
22
History Matches
37
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.07
42.51
Overperformance
45.61
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
0.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
22
Matches
37
0.73
PPG
1.05
13.6%
Win rate
27.0%
31.8%
Draw rate
24.3%
54.5%
Loss rate
48.6%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
27.0%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
11
Matches
18
1.00
PPG
0.50
18.2%
Win rate
11.1%
45.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
36.4%
Loss rate
72.2%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
9.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
11
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.50
Goals for per game
1.05
40.9%
Scoring rate
56.8%
31.8%
BTTS rate
48.6%
0.45
Goals for per game
0.50
45.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
27.3%
BTTS rate
38.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.04
40.9%
Scoring rate
60.9%
31.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
22
History Matches
37
0.50
Goals Mean
1.05
0.66
Goals Std
1.21
40.9%
Scored 1+ rate
56.8%
9.1%
Scored 2+ rate
27.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.2%
0.45
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.62
72.7%
Conceding rate
83.8%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.72
54.5%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.55
Goals against per game
1.48
72.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
22
History Matches
37
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.44
Conceded Std
1.15
40.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.1%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
59.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
59.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
59.1%
Failed-to-score rate
43.2%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
54.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
22
History Matches
37
0.88
Result entropy
0.95
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.82
12.01
Stability score
4.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
22
Eligible Matches
37
4
Lead Matches
9
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
12
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
22
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.23
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
85.00
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
11
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
10
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
23
0.73
PPG
1.13
13.6%
Win rate
30.4%
31.8%
Draw rate
21.7%
54.5%
Loss rate
47.8%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
27.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
22
Current Competition Matches
23
0.73
Current Competition PPG
1.13
-1.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.20
—
Portability Score
83.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
22
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.88
PPG-0.33
GF-0.55
GA-0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG0.50
PPG0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate34.3%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.55
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.68
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.38
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score7.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.28
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.61
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO-10.88
Current Opponent ELO10.88
Current ELO Difference-21.76
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-3.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2

L
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 21–2Independiente Res.20 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente Res. 61% · hit
D
Atl. Rafaela 21–1Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 213 Oct · away
Pick: Atl. Rafaela 2 51% · missed
D
Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 22–2Platense Res.7 Oct · home
Pick: Platense Res. 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ferro 2

D
Ferro 20–0Huracán Res.29 Oct · home
Pick: Huracán Res. 39% · missed
L
Ferro 20–1Colón Res.21 Oct · home
Pick: Ferro 2 41% · missed
L
Boca Juniors Res.1–0Ferro 215 Oct · away
Pick: Boca Juniors Res. 80% · hit
D
Ferro 20–0Independiente Res.7 Oct · home
Pick: Independiente Res. 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 and Ferro 2 meet in Reserve League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2 win 32.8%, draw 30.5%, Ferro 2 win 36.7%. The pick is Ferro 2 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 46.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.