ScoreProb
Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

FC Koln W vs RB Leipzig W

FC Koln W Home · Elo 1,503
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
RB Leipzig W Away · Elo 1,457
Franz-Kremer Stadion, Cologne Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Koln W win
FC Koln W winPick
42.8%
Draw
24.8%
RB Leipzig W win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.4%
Under 2.539.6%

How much we know

FC Koln W history39 matches
RB Leipzig W history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Koln W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Koln W are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,457. On rating alone FC Koln W would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • RB Leipzig W score more

    1.33 goals a game over 39 matches for FC Koln W, against 1.51 over 39 for RB Leipzig W.

  • FC Koln W concede fewer

    FC Koln W concede 1.51 a game, RB Leipzig W 1.77.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of FC Koln W matches, against 56% for RB Leipzig W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Koln W
RB Leipzig W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.6
ELO
1456.8
39
ELO · Matches
39
1502.6
Current Team ELO
1456.8
1456.8
Current Opponent ELO
1502.6
45.82
Current ELO Difference
-45.82
0.57
Expected score
0.43
39
History Matches
39
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.83
Overperformance
46.97
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
39
1.26
PPG
1.03
35.9%
Win rate
25.6%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.6%
46.2%
Loss rate
48.7%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
43.6%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
18
1.33
PPG
1.11
38.9%
Win rate
27.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
44.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
18
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.51
69.2%
Scoring rate
69.2%
48.7%
BTTS rate
59.0%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.94
55.6%
Scoring rate
77.8%
27.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
39
History Matches
39
1.33
Goals Mean
1.51
1.35
Goals Std
1.50
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
35.9%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.77
71.8%
Conceding rate
87.2%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.94
61.1%
Conceding rate
83.3%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
39
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.50
Conceded Std
1.27
41.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.7%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.2%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
44.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
28.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
39
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.14
5.98
Stability score
4.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
39
16
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.69
10
Trailing Matches
19
0.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.29
Rest days
78.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
16
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.52
Portability PPG Range
0.28
65.66
Portability Score
78.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO45.82
PPG0.23
GF-0.18
GA-0.26
PPG0.00
PPG0.22
PPG1.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate22.2%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score1.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-12.66
Rest days1.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO45.82
Current Opponent ELO-45.82
Current ELO Difference91.63
Expected score0.13
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Koln W

W
FC Koln W1–0RB Leipzig W31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Koln W 44% · hit
L
VfL Wolfsburg W3–0FC Koln W24 Oct · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg W 73% · hit
W
FC Koln W3–1Hamburger SV W17 Oct · home
Pick: Hamburger SV W 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

RB Leipzig W

L
FC Koln W1–0RB Leipzig W31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Koln W 44% · hit
L
RB Leipzig W1–5Bayern Munich W23 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Munich W 69% · hit
W
SC Freiburg W0–3RB Leipzig W16 Oct · away
Pick: SC Freiburg W 57% · missed
L
Werder Bremen W2–0RB Leipzig W30 Aug · away
Pick: Werder Bremen W 64% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Koln W and RB Leipzig W meet in Frauen Bundesliga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Franz-Kremer Stadion, Cologne. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: FC Koln W win 42.8%, draw 24.8%, RB Leipzig W win 32.4%. The pick is FC Koln W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.4%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.