ScoreProb
Premier League Armenia Round 13 2026

FC Noah vs Shirak

FC Noah Home · Elo 1,674
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shirak Away · Elo 1,375
Abovyan City Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Noah win
FC Noah winPick
78.7%
Draw
14.1%
Shirak win
7.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%

How much we know

FC Noah history88 matches
Shirak history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (78.7%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why FC Noah are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Noah are rated 298 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,674 against 1,375. On rating alone FC Noah would be expected to take 85% of the points on offer.

  • FC Noah score far more

    1.99 goals a game over 88 matches for FC Noah, against 0.87 over 47 for Shirak.

  • FC Noah concede fewer

    FC Noah concede 0.97 a game, Shirak 1.83.

  • FC Noah games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of FC Noah matches, against 47% for Shirak. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Noah
Shirak
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1673.6
ELO
1375.4
88
ELO · Matches
47
1673.6
Current Team ELO
1375.4
1375.4
Current Opponent ELO
1673.6
298.3
Current ELO Difference
-298.3
0.85
Expected score
0.15
88
History Matches
47
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.13
57.67
Overperformance
40.70
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.80
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.64
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
47
1.98
PPG
0.60
56.8%
Win rate
12.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
21.3%
15.9%
Loss rate
66.0%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
24
2.26
PPG
0.46
67.4%
Win rate
8.3%
23.3%
Draw rate
20.8%
9.3%
Loss rate
70.8%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
60.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
43
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.99
Goals for per game
0.87
81.8%
Scoring rate
46.8%
46.6%
BTTS rate
36.2%
2.19
Goals for per game
0.71
88.4%
Scoring rate
45.8%
46.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
2.25
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
88
History Matches
47
1.99
Goals Mean
0.87
1.54
Goals Std
1.27
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
46.8%
59.1%
Scored 2+ rate
19.1%
31.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.6%
2.19
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.97
Goals against per game
1.83
55.7%
Conceding rate
76.6%
0.81
Goals against per game
2.21
46.5%
Conceding rate
79.2%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
25.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
88
History Matches
47
0.97
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.11
Conceded Std
1.58
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.9%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
2.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
53.2%
53.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
53.2%
53.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
54.2%
44.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
47
0.88
Result entropy
0.79
1.80
Goal Difference Std
2.05
11.89
Stability score
21.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
46
41
Lead Matches
8
90.2%
Lead Win Rate
37.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.42
17
Trailing Matches
15
47.1%
Non-loss rate
6.7%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.37
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.13
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.83
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
58
Normal Rest History Matches
24
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
17
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.59
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
0.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.25
12
Competition Season Count
5
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.55
43.05
Portability Score
65.26
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO298.3
PPG1.38
GF1.12
GA-0.86
PPG2.00
PPG1.80
PPG0.60
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate20.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate32.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches41
Goals Mean1.12
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate35.0%
Scored 2+ rate39.9%
Scored 3+ rate21.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.48
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-0.86
Conceded Std-0.46
Clean-sheet rate20.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches41
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.26
Stability score-9.24
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.92
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches33
Lead Win Rate52.7%
Lead Points Retention0.51
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate40.4%
Trailing Win Rate11.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.65
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count7
Eligible Competition Season Count5
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.45
Portability Score-22.21
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest History Matches34
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.60
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO298.3
Current Opponent ELO-298.3
Current ELO Difference596.5
Expected score0.70
History Matches41
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance16.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Noah

W
Syunik1–3FC Noah1 Nov · away
Pick: FC Noah 60% · hit
L
Ararat-Armenia2–1FC Noah26 Oct · away
Pick: FC Noah 44% · missed
D
FC Noah1–1Pyunik Yerevan18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Noah 48% · missed
W
FC Noah4–0Ararat30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Noah 74% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shirak

W
Shirak2–1BKMA31 Oct · home
Pick: Shirak 46% · hit
W
Lernayin Artsakh1–7Shirak28 Oct · away
Pick: Shirak 39% · hit
L
Shirak0–1Alashkert24 Oct · home
Pick: Alashkert 69% · hit
D
Ararat1–1Shirak17 Oct · away
Pick: Ararat 46% · missed
L
Syunik2–0Shirak12 Oct · away
Pick: Syunik 57% · hit

About this match

FC Noah and Shirak meet in Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Abovyan City Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Noah win 78.7%, draw 14.1%, Shirak win 7.2%. The pick is FC Noah win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.