Fethiyespor vs Eyüpspor
Fethiyespor
Full time
2–4
Half time 1–2
Wed 4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
Eyüpspor
What we said before kickoff Result: Eyüpspor win
Fethiyespor win
36.0%
Draw
27.2%
Eyüpspor winPick Result
36.8%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickEyüpspor win · 36.8%
What happenedEyüpspor win · we gave it 36.8%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.9%
What happenedOver · 6 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 51.6%
What happenedYes · 2–4
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Eyüpspor win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
37%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 37% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
20'
GoalL. Pintor · assist C. Raux Yao
Penalty goalM. Turkmen
36' 45'
GoalJ. El Yamiq · assist M. Demir
47'
GoalD. Costa
53'
GoalA. Sabiri
GoalI. Akgun
75' Both teams to score
Yes51.6%
No48.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Fethiyespor history56 matches
Eyüpspor history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 2 h ahead31 Oct · 07:49 UTC
- Re-published 8 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–4All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Eyüpspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Fethiyespor are rated 50 Elo points higher
Elo 1,501 against 1,451. On rating alone Fethiyespor would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.18 goals a game over 56 matches for Fethiyespor, against 1.10 over 61 for Eyüpspor.
-
Fethiyespor concede fewer
Fethiyespor concede 1.23 a game, Eyüpspor 1.46.
-
Eyüpspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Fethiyespor matches, against 52% for Eyüpspor. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fethiyespor
Eyüpspor
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1501.2
ELO
1451.2
56
ELO · Matches
61
1501.2
Current Team ELO
1451.2
1451.2
Current Opponent ELO
1501.2
50.03
Current ELO Difference
-50.03
0.57
Expected score
0.43
56
History Matches
61
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.40
Overperformance
47.28
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.97
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
61
1.21
PPG
1.05
30.4%
Win rate
27.9%
30.4%
Draw rate
21.3%
39.3%
Loss rate
50.8%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
30
1.34
PPG
0.83
31.0%
Win rate
20.0%
41.4%
Draw rate
23.3%
27.6%
Loss rate
56.7%
65.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
31.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
29
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.10
57.1%
Scoring rate
62.3%
37.5%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.34
Goals for per game
0.83
65.5%
Scoring rate
56.7%
44.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
61
1.18
Goals Mean
1.10
1.59
Goals Std
1.30
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
62.3%
26.8%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.46
67.9%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.57
62.1%
Conceding rate
86.7%
56
History Matches
61
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.18
Conceded Std
1.21
32.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.1%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.3%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.7%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
34.5%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
61
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.25
Goal Difference Std
1.92
0.71
Stability score
6.29
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
61
14
Lead Matches
14
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.6%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.83
15
Trailing Matches
20
20.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
192.9
Rest days
72.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
11
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.27
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.69
Portability PPG Range
0.43
63.86
Portability Score
74.04
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO50.03
PPG0.17
GF0.08
GA-0.23
PPG0.51
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate24.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.23
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score-5.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.36
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate10.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.26
Portability Score-10.17
Rest days120.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO50.03
Current Opponent ELO-50.03
Current ELO Difference100.1
Expected score0.14
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fethiyespor
L
1461 Trabzon FK2–1Fethiyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Fethiyespor 37% · missed D
Fethiyespor2–2Ankaragücü17 Oct · home
Pick: Ankaragücü 40% · missed W
Gaziemirspor0–2Fethiyespor7 Oct · away
Pick: Fethiyespor 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Eyüpspor
L
Amed5–1Eyüpspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Amed 61% · hit L
Eyüpspor0–1Kasımpaşa24 Oct · home
Pick: Kasımpaşa 45% · hit L
Erzurumspor FK2–0Eyüpspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Erzurumspor FK 46% · hit L
Eyüpspor0–4Göztepe12 Oct · home
Pick: Göztepe 46% · hit W
Eyüpspor2–1Alanyaspor30 Aug · home
Pick: Alanyaspor 46% · missed Match report
Fethiyespor and Eyüpspor finished 2–4 in Türkiye Kupası on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 07:49 UTC, before kickoff: Fethiyespor win 36.0%, draw 27.2%, Eyüpspor win 36.8%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.