ScoreProb
Primera Division El Salvador Round 3 2026

Firpo vs Alianza

Firpo Home · Elo 1,674
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alianza Away · Elo 1,578
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Firpo win
Firpo winPick
57.8%
Draw
23.1%
Alianza win
19.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.9%
No54.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%

How much we know

Firpo history85 matches
Alianza history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 01:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Firpo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Firpo are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,674 against 1,578. On rating alone Firpo would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Firpo score more

    1.80 goals a game over 85 matches for Firpo, against 1.43 over 81 for Alianza.

  • Defences are close

    Firpo concede 0.86 a game, Alianza 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Firpo matches, against 46% for Alianza. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Firpo
Alianza@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1673.9
ELO
1578.0
85
ELO · Matches
81
1673.9
Current Team ELO
1578.0
1578.0
Current Opponent ELO
1673.9
95.97
Current ELO Difference
-95.97
0.63
Expected score
0.37
85
History Matches
81
0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
58.10
Overperformance
53.03
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.40
0.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
0.50
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
85
Matches
81
2.07
PPG
1.78
60.0%
Win rate
53.1%
27.1%
Draw rate
18.5%
12.9%
Loss rate
28.4%
74.1%
Over 1.5 rate
64.2%
48.2%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
44
2.09
PPG
1.64
60.5%
Win rate
45.5%
27.9%
Draw rate
27.3%
11.6%
Loss rate
27.3%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
61.4%
34.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
20.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
43
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.80
Goals for per game
1.43
83.5%
Scoring rate
71.6%
51.8%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.27
79.1%
Scoring rate
68.2%
34.9%
BTTS rate
40.9%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
25.0%
20.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
85
History Matches
81
1.80
Goals Mean
1.43
1.30
Goals Std
1.25
83.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.6%
51.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.2%
32.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.86
Goals against per game
0.94
58.8%
Conceding rate
59.3%
0.65
Goals against per game
0.84
44.2%
Conceding rate
56.8%
0.20
Goals against per game
1.25
20.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
85
History Matches
81
0.86
Conceded Mean
0.94
0.93
Conceded Std
0.95
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.2%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
0.84
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
16.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
55.8%
Clean-sheet rate
43.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
80.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
75.0%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
16.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.4%
55.8%
Clean-sheet rate
43.2%
20.9%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
41.2%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
85
History Matches
81
0.84
Result entropy
0.92
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.57
15.82
Stability score
8.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
81
34
Lead Matches
32
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.90
17
Trailing Matches
16
64.7%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
29.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.06
Rest days
74.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
11
2.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.09
57
Normal Rest History Matches
54
2.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.69
15
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
2.20
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
25.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
5
Current Competition Matches
4
2.20
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.47
0.69
Portability PPG Range
1.05
68.62
Portability Score
51.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
85
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO95.97
PPG0.29
GF0.37
GA-0.08
PPG1.20
PPG0.46
PPG1.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.05
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.6%
Scored 3+ rate12.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score7.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.20
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate0.7%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate52.2%
Trailing Win Rate23.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.90
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.24
Portability PPG Range-0.35
Portability Score16.98
Rest days-0.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.08
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO95.97
Current Opponent ELO-95.97
Current ELO Difference191.9
Expected score0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Firpo

D
Firpo1–1FAS1 Nov · home
Pick: Firpo 52% · missed
L
Deportivo Saprissa2–1Firpo29 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Saprissa 40% · hit
D
Firpo0–0Deportivo Saprissa22 Oct · home
Pick: Firpo 40% · missed
D
Alianza2–2Firpo4 Oct · away
Pick: Firpo 53% · missed
L
FAS3–1Firpo30 Aug · away
Pick: Firpo 44% · missed

Alianza

L
Atletico Balboa1–0Alianza1 Nov · away
Pick: Atletico Balboa 34% · hit
D
Alianza0–0CD Marathon28 Oct · home
Pick: CD Marathon 36% · missed
L
CD Marathon2–1Alianza21 Oct · away
Pick: CD Marathon 47% · hit
D
Cacahuatique0–0Alianza17 Oct · away
Pick: Cacahuatique 34% · missed
D
Alianza2–2Firpo4 Oct · home
Pick: Firpo 53% · missed

About this match

Firpo and Alianza meet in Primera Division on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Firpo win 57.8%, draw 23.1%, Alianza win 19.2%. The pick is Firpo win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.6%. Both teams to score: 45.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.