ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

FK Jablonec vs Mlada Boleslav

FK Jablonec Home · Elo 1,637
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mlada Boleslav Away · Elo 1,586
Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Jablonec win
FK Jablonec winPick
45.4%
Draw
28.2%
Mlada Boleslav win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%

How much we know

FK Jablonec history76 matches
Mlada Boleslav history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FK Jablonec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FK Jablonec are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,637 against 1,586. On rating alone FK Jablonec would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.63 goals a game over 76 matches for FK Jablonec, against 1.63 over 75 for Mlada Boleslav.

  • FK Jablonec concede fewer

    FK Jablonec concede 1.14 a game, Mlada Boleslav 1.48.

  • Mlada Boleslav games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of FK Jablonec matches, against 63% for Mlada Boleslav. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Jablonec
Mlada Boleslav
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.3
ELO
1585.5
76
ELO · Matches
75
1637.3
Current Team ELO
1585.5
1585.5
Current Opponent ELO
1637.3
51.80
Current ELO Difference
-51.80
0.57
Expected score
0.43
76
History Matches
75
0.10
Residual Mean
0.06
57.91
Overperformance
54.52
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
2.30
1.50
Goals for per game
2.50
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
75
1.88
PPG
1.37
56.6%
Win rate
37.3%
18.4%
Draw rate
25.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
37.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.7%
48.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.7%
28.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
38
2.02
PPG
1.37
58.1%
Win rate
36.8%
27.9%
Draw rate
26.3%
14.0%
Loss rate
36.8%
65.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.6%
46.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
30.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
43
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.63
Goals for per game
1.63
80.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
44.7%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.68
81.4%
Scoring rate
73.7%
46.5%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.20
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
80.0%
76
History Matches
75
1.63
Goals Mean
1.63
1.36
Goals Std
1.42
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
46.1%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
21.1%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.48
56.6%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.50
51.2%
Conceding rate
76.3%
0.33
Goals against per game
1.20
33.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
76
History Matches
75
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.30
Conceded Std
1.25
32.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.0%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
48.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
75
0.89
Result entropy
0.99
1.91
Goal Difference Std
2.02
10.76
Stability score
1.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
75
38
Lead Matches
20
92.1%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.93
17
Trailing Matches
26
35.3%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
17.6%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
86.90
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.90
45
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.20
100.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
3
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.20
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.43
Portability PPG Range
1.69
54.24
Portability Score
45.88
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO51.80
PPG0.51
GF0.00
GA-0.34
PPG0.80
PPG0.65
PPG0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate25.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate16.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score9.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.13
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate8.4%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score8.37
Rest days8.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.54
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.96
Current Team ELO51.80
Current Opponent ELO-51.80
Current ELO Difference103.6
Expected score0.15
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Jablonec

L
FK Jablonec0–5Slavia Praha31 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 43% · hit
W
Hradec Králové1–2FK Jablonec25 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 36% · hit
D
FK Jablonec0–0Brighton22 Oct · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 51% · missed
L
FK Jablonec2–3Plzen18 Oct · home
Pick: FK Jablonec 48% · missed
L
SC Freiburg3–2FK Jablonec15 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 42% · missed

Mlada Boleslav

W
Mlada Boleslav3–1Hradec Králové1 Nov · home
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 42% · hit
W
Mlada Boleslav3–2Bohemians 190528 Oct · home
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 46% · hit
D
Slavia Praha1–1Mlada Boleslav24 Oct · away
Pick: Slavia Praha 57% · missed
W
Mlada Boleslav1–0Teplice17 Oct · home
Pick: Mlada Boleslav 59% · hit
L
Bohemians 19051–0Mlada Boleslav14 Oct · away
Pick: Bohemians 1905 37% · hit

About this match

FK Jablonec and Mlada Boleslav meet in Czech Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FK Jablonec win 45.4%, draw 28.2%, Mlada Boleslav win 26.4%. The pick is FK Jablonec win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.9%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.