ScoreProb
Prva Liga Serbia Round 17 2026

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV vs Metalac GM

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV Home · Elo 1,391
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Metalac GM Away · Elo 1,582
Gradski stadion, Subotica Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV winPick
44.5%
Draw
22.5%
Metalac GM win
33.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.7%
No50.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV history66 matches
Metalac GM history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Metalac GM are rated 190 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,582 against 1,391. On rating alone Metalac GM would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Metalac GM score more

    1.20 goals a game over 66 matches for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, against 1.39 over 46 for Metalac GM.

  • Metalac GM concede fewer

    FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV concede 1.74 a game, Metalac GM 0.74.

  • FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV matches, against 35% for Metalac GM. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Metalac GM
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1391.5
ELO
1581.7
66
ELO · Matches
46
1391.5
Current Team ELO
1581.7
1581.7
Current Opponent ELO
1391.5
-190.2
Current ELO Difference
190.2
0.25
Expected score
0.75
66
History Matches
46
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
43.65
Overperformance
56.25
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
46
0.91
PPG
1.93
21.2%
Win rate
56.5%
27.3%
Draw rate
23.9%
51.5%
Loss rate
19.6%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
56.5%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
22
0.97
PPG
1.91
21.9%
Win rate
54.5%
31.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
46.9%
Loss rate
18.2%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
54.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
31.8%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
4.5%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.16
32
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.39
69.7%
Scoring rate
78.3%
60.6%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.18
78.1%
Scoring rate
77.3%
65.6%
BTTS rate
40.9%
2.60
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
66
History Matches
46
1.20
Goals Mean
1.39
1.05
Goals Std
1.15
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
17.4%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
0.74
84.8%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.84
Goals against per game
0.68
81.3%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
66
History Matches
46
1.74
Conceded Mean
0.74
1.18
Conceded Std
1.03
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
13.0%
22.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.3%
1.84
Venue Conceded Mean
0.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
46
0.93
Result entropy
0.90
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.48
6.70
Stability score
10.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
45
15
Lead Matches
20
53.3%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.88
25
Trailing Matches
4
8.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
76.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
40
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
23
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.65
1.03
Portability PPG Range
1.58
56.27
Portability Score
43.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-190.2
PPG-1.03
GF-0.19
GA1.00
PPG0.80
PPG-0.94
PPG0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.35
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.27
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.19
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches20
Conceded Mean1.00
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.35
Conceded 2+ rate43.0%
Conceded 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Conceded Mean1.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches20
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-3.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.32
Lead Points Retention-0.24
Trailing Matches21
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score12.82
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Current Team ELO-190.2
Current Opponent ELO190.2
Current ELO Difference-380.4
Expected score-0.50
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.17
Overperformance-12.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

W
OFK Bor 19190–1FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV2 Nov · away
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 63% · hit
W
Grafičar0–2FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV24 Oct · away
Pick: Grafičar 46% · missed
D
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV3–3Borac Cacak19 Oct · home
Pick: Borac Cacak 43% · missed
L
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV0–6Naftagas4 Oct · home
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 44% · missed
D
Jedinstvo Ub1–1FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV29 Aug · away
Pick: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 47% · missed

Metalac GM

L
Metalac GM1–3Jedinstvo Ub2 Nov · home
Pick: Metalac GM 52% · missed
L
Metalac GM1–2Javor24 Oct · home
Pick: Javor 45% · hit
L
TSC Backa Topola5–1Metalac GM17 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit
D
OFK Vršac0–0Metalac GM4 Oct · away
Pick: OFK Vršac 47% · missed
L
Metalac GM2–4Loznica29 Aug · home
Pick: Metalac GM 41% · missed

About this match

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV and Metalac GM meet in Prva Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Gradski stadion, Subotica. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win 44.5%, draw 22.5%, Metalac GM win 33.0%. The pick is FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 49.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.