ScoreProb
Prva Liga Serbia Round 17 2026

Javor vs TSC Backa Topola

Javor Home · Elo 1,481
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
TSC Backa Topola Away · Elo 1,481
Stadion Kraj Moravice, Ivanjica Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Javor win
Javor winPick
43.8%
Draw
26.6%
TSC Backa Topola win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%

How much we know

Javor history66 matches
TSC Backa Topola history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Javor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,481 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 66 matches for Javor, against 1.29 over 72 for TSC Backa Topola.

  • Javor concede fewer

    Javor concede 1.33 a game, TSC Backa Topola 1.53.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Javor matches, against 57% for TSC Backa Topola. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Javor
TSC Backa Topola
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1481.4
ELO
1481.3
66
ELO · Matches
72
1481.4
Current Team ELO
1481.3
1481.3
Current Opponent ELO
1481.4
0.00
Current ELO Difference
0.00
0.50
Expected score
0.50
66
History Matches
72
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
49.32
Overperformance
48.33
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
72
1.32
PPG
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
30.6%
31.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
34.8%
Loss rate
44.4%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
40
1.71
PPG
1.00
48.6%
Win rate
25.0%
25.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
65.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
35
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.29
71.2%
Scoring rate
76.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.49
Goals for per game
1.20
77.1%
Scoring rate
72.5%
45.7%
BTTS rate
67.5%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
66
History Matches
72
1.27
Goals Mean
1.29
1.09
Goals Std
1.16
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
40.9%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
10.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.53
74.2%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
54.3%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
66
History Matches
72
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.21
Conceded Std
1.15
37.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
45.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
72
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.59
0.06
Stability score
2.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
69
21
Lead Matches
18
61.9%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.59
16
Trailing Matches
23
31.3%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.96
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
24
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.15
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.49
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.20
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
6
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.63
0.71
Portability PPG Range
2.00
62.58
Portability Score
44.06
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO0.00
PPG0.15
GF-0.02
GA-0.19
PPG-0.60
PPG0.71
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate30.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate9.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.19
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate6.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.09
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-2.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.65
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate11.9%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate9.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.60
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-1.29
Portability Score18.53
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO0.00
Current Opponent ELO0.00
Current ELO Difference0.00
Expected score0.00
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Javor

W
Teleoptik2–3Javor2 Nov · away
Pick: Javor 46% · hit
W
Jedinstvo Kruševac1–3Javor28 Oct · away
Pick: Javor 50% · hit
W
Metalac GM1–2Javor24 Oct · away
Pick: Javor 45% · hit
W
Javor3–1Borac Cacak4 Oct · home
Pick: Javor 42% · hit
W
Javor3–0Napredak30 Aug · home
Pick: Javor 50% · hit

TSC Backa Topola

L
OFK Vršac2–1TSC Backa Topola1 Nov · away
Pick: OFK Vršac 40% · hit
W
Semendrija 19242–3TSC Backa Topola28 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 39% · hit
W
Teleoptik1–2TSC Backa Topola23 Oct · away
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 48% · hit
W
TSC Backa Topola5–1Metalac GM17 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit
W
TSC Backa Topola4–1Grafičar5 Oct · home
Pick: TSC Backa Topola 51% · hit

About this match

Javor and TSC Backa Topola meet in Prva Liga on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Kraj Moravice, Ivanjica. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Javor win 43.8%, draw 26.6%, TSC Backa Topola win 29.5%. The pick is Javor win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.7%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.