ScoreProb
Serie A Brazil Round 34 2026

Flamengo vs Gremio

Flamengo Home · Elo 1,707
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gremio Away · Elo 1,549
Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro Referee: P. Zanovelli Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Flamengo win
Flamengo winPick
65.4%
Draw
22.2%
Gremio win
12.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.8%
Under 2.547.2%

How much we know

Flamengo history106 matches
Gremio history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 22:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Flamengo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Flamengo are rated 157 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,707 against 1,549. On rating alone Flamengo would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Flamengo score more

    1.95 goals a game over 106 matches for Flamengo, against 1.41 over 91 for Gremio.

  • Flamengo concede fewer

    Flamengo concede 0.82 a game, Gremio 1.12.

  • Flamengo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Flamengo matches, against 42% for Gremio. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flamengo
Gremio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1706.6
ELO
1549.2
106
ELO · Matches
91
1706.6
Current Team ELO
1549.2
1549.2
Current Opponent ELO
1706.6
157.4
Current ELO Difference
-157.4
0.71
Expected score
0.29
106
History Matches
91
0.09
Residual Mean
0.03
57.97
Overperformance
52.14
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.80
2.30
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
106
Matches
91
2.05
PPG
1.45
60.4%
Win rate
39.6%
23.6%
Draw rate
26.4%
16.0%
Loss rate
34.1%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
23.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
54
Matches
46
2.39
PPG
1.04
74.1%
Win rate
26.1%
16.7%
Draw rate
26.1%
9.3%
Loss rate
47.8%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
54
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.95
Goals for per game
1.41
84.9%
Scoring rate
75.8%
48.1%
BTTS rate
50.5%
2.26
Goals for per game
1.22
90.7%
Scoring rate
69.6%
40.7%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.17
88.2%
Scoring rate
72.2%
58.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
106
History Matches
91
1.95
Goals Mean
1.41
1.64
Goals Std
1.27
84.9%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
54.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.3%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
2.26
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.82
Goals against per game
1.12
56.6%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.70
Goals against per game
1.35
46.3%
Conceding rate
78.3%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.67
70.6%
Conceding rate
94.4%
106
History Matches
91
0.82
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.89
Conceded Std
0.98
19.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
53.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
15.1%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
53.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
106
History Matches
91
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.73
14.54
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
106
Eligible Matches
90
42
Lead Matches
24
88.1%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
21
35.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
106
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.96
Rest days
73.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.42
72
Normal Rest History Matches
51
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
1.82
PPG
1.00
52.9%
Win rate
27.8%
23.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
23.5%
Loss rate
55.6%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
17
Current Competition Matches
18
1.82
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
14
Competition Season Count
9
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.90
Portability PPG Range
1.33
61.51
Portability Score
57.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
106
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO157.4
PPG0.60
GF0.55
GA-0.30
PPG0.82
PPG1.35
PPG0.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate32.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.38
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.72
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std0.26
Stability score13.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate17.3%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate11.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.21
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.43
Portability Score4.42
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.36
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.15
Current Team ELO157.4
Current Opponent ELO-157.4
Current ELO Difference314.8
Expected score0.42
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flamengo

W
Vasco DA Gama1–4Flamengo29 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 50% · hit
W
Flamengo3–2Atletico-MG26 Oct · home
Pick: Flamengo 56% · hit
W
Bahia0–3Flamengo18 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 41% · hit
D
Estudiantes L.P.0–0Flamengo16 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 40% · missed
D
Santos2–2Flamengo8 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 41% · missed

Gremio

W
Gremio2–0Atletico-MG1 Nov · home
Pick: Gremio 43% · hit
W
Gremio2–0Atletico Paranaense30 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 37% · missed
W
Coritiba0–1Gremio26 Oct · away
Pick: Coritiba 42% · missed
L
Gremio2–4Cruzeiro18 Oct · home
Pick: Gremio 38% · missed
D
Remo1–1Gremio7 Oct · away
Pick: Remo 37% · missed

About this match

Flamengo and Gremio meet in Serie A on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 22:30 UTC. The match is played at Estádio do Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Flamengo win 65.4%, draw 22.2%, Gremio win 12.4%. The pick is Flamengo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.8%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.