ScoreProb
Cup Estonia Round 16 2026

Flora Tallinn vs Tartu Welco

Flora Tallinn Home · Elo 1,634
Full time
7–2
Half time 3–1
Wed 4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
Tartu Welco Away · Elo 1,608
A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn Referee: to be announced Pick published 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC, before kickoff
What we said before kickoff Result: Flora Tallinn win
Flora Tallinn winPick Result
58.5%
Draw
16.0%
Tartu Welco win
25.5%

How our picks did

Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.

3 of 3 hit
Match result
Our pickFlora Tallinn win · 58.5%
What happenedFlora Tallinn win · we gave it 58.5%
Hit
Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 69.0%
What happenedOver · 9 goals
Hit
Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 60.5%
What happenedYes · 7–2
Hit

How surprising was it?

Result: Flora Tallinn win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.

59%
chance we gave it
0%50%100%
1 in 1.7
on average
A pick at 59% is expected to miss about 4 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

1'
GoalHenri Kablik
13'
Yellow cardMarkus Sossi
GoalTristan Teevali
16'
GoalDanil·Kuraksin
19'
22'
Yellow cardromet salu
36'
Yellow cardRasmus·Kala
Goalmaksim kalimullin
44'
45'
Yellow cardMark William·Mugra
46'
SubstitutionErki Mottus off · Marten Zovo on
46'
SubstitutionMarkus Sossi off · hardi ernits on
GoalTaaniel Usta
48'
GoalTony Varjund
52'
GoalRobert Veering
56'
SubstitutionDanil·Kuraksin off · uku viiroja on
61'
SubstitutionMihhail Kolobov off · mikk ollisaar on
61'
SubstitutionTony Varjund off · Ilja Antonov on
61'
61'
SubstitutionKenlou Laasner off · ekke malki on
66'
GoalEnrico Veensalu
Yellow cardVladislav Kreida
71'
SubstitutionVladislav Kreida off · Sander tovstik on
71'
76'
SubstitutionEnrico Veensalu off · Marko Magi on
GoalOscar Pihela
84'
85'
SubstitutionHenri Kablik off · Rendo Roots on
Yellow cardmaksim kalimullin
86'

Lineups

Flora Tallinn 4-2-3-1 · Tartu Welco 4-3-3

Substitutes · Flora Tallinn · Coach Karl Mööl

  • 67I. Antonov
  • 33E. Grünvald
  • 87mikk ollisaar
  • 26S. Tovstik
  • 90U. Viiroja
  • 20S. Zenjov

Substitutes · Tartu Welco · Coach A. Bärengrub

  • 91Tauri·Bachmann
  • 27hardi ernits
  • 11Marko Mägi
  • 47ekke malki
  • 88R. Roots
  • 24M. Sepp
  • 6Tauno Tekko
  • 2Lesor Timothy
  • 40S. Viira
  • 59Marten Zovo
  • 26T. Hoffmann

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.0%
Under 2.531.0%

How much we know

Flora Tallinn history83 matches
Tartu Welco history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 07:24 UTC
  2. Re-published 5 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Lineups publishedThis prediction does not use lineups.
  4. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  5. Full time: 7–2All three of our picks hit
  6. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this result

A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.

The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
Save picture

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Flora Tallinn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Flora Tallinn are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,634 against 1,608. On rating alone Flora Tallinn would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Tartu Welco score more

    2.11 goals a game over 83 matches for Flora Tallinn, against 2.79 over 72 for Tartu Welco.

  • Flora Tallinn concede fewer

    Flora Tallinn concede 1.04 a game, Tartu Welco 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Flora Tallinn matches, against 78% for Tartu Welco. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Flora Tallinn
Tartu Welco@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1634.2
ELO
1608.3
83
ELO · Matches
72
1634.2
Current Team ELO
1608.3
1608.3
Current Opponent ELO
1634.2
25.86
Current ELO Difference
-25.86
0.54
Expected score
0.46
83
History Matches
72
0.09
Residual Mean
0.06
56.85
Overperformance
54.98
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
3.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
4.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
4.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.72
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
4.39
Overall performance9 signals
90
83
Matches
72
2.00
PPG
1.79
63.9%
Win rate
54.2%
8.4%
Draw rate
16.7%
27.7%
Loss rate
29.2%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
71.1%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
37.3%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
40
2.04
PPG
1.70
66.7%
Win rate
52.5%
4.4%
Draw rate
12.5%
28.9%
Loss rate
35.0%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.30
45
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
2.79
85.5%
Scoring rate
90.3%
49.4%
BTTS rate
63.9%
2.31
Goals for per game
2.65
91.1%
Scoring rate
92.5%
44.4%
BTTS rate
65.0%
—
Goals for per game
10.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
83
History Matches
72
2.11
Goals Mean
2.79
1.93
Goals Std
2.69
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
90.3%
59.0%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
31.3%
Scored 3+ rate
45.8%
2.31
Venue Goals Mean
2.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.04
Goals against per game
1.56
62.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.58
53.3%
Conceding rate
72.5%
—
Goals against per game
0.00
—
Conceding rate
0.0%
83
History Matches
72
1.04
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.07
Conceded Std
1.37
25.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.2%
13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
37.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
83
History Matches
72
0.77
Result entropy
0.90
2.54
Goal Difference Std
3.42
22.57
Stability score
9.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
83
Eligible Matches
72
38
Lead Matches
31
92.1%
Lead Win Rate
77.4%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.83
20
Trailing Matches
24
40.0%
Non-loss rate
20.8%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
83
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.67
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.04
Rest days
73.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
52
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.98
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
21
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
3.00
—
Win rate
100.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
3.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
10.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.60
Portability PPG Std
1.04
1.85
Portability PPG Range
2.40
45.33
Portability Score
32.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
83
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO25.86
PPG0.21
GF-0.68
GA-0.52
PPG0.34
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate19.2%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.68
Goals Std-0.75
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-3.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-2.89
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.88
Stability score12.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.91
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate14.7%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate19.2%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score12.91
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.19
Current Team ELO25.86
Current Opponent ELO-25.86
Current ELO Difference51.73
Expected score0.07
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Flora Tallinn

W
Flora Tallinn2–0Trans Narva1 Nov · home
Pick: Flora Tallinn 70% · hit
L
Kalju Nomme2–1Flora Tallinn25 Oct · away
Pick: Kalju Nomme 39% · hit
L
Laagri3–1Flora Tallinn21 Oct · away
Pick: Flora Tallinn 51% · missed
W
Flora Tallinn2–0Tammeka18 Oct · home
Pick: Flora Tallinn 57% · hit
L
Flora Tallinn1–3FC Levadia Tallinn15 Oct · home
Pick: FC Levadia Tallinn 49% · hit

Tartu Welco

W
Flora II1–2Tartu Welco31 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Welco 49% · hit
W
Tartu Welco3–2Tallinna Kalev23 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Welco 61% · hit
W
Tartu Welco4–3Nõmme United II18 Oct · home
Pick: Tartu Welco 72% · hit
W
FC Tallinn0–7Tartu Welco15 Oct · away
Pick: Tartu Welco 58% · hit
L
Tartu Welco1–3Viimsi29 Aug · home
Pick: Tartu Welco 52% · missed

Match report

Flora Tallinn and Tartu Welco finished 7–2 in Cup on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 3–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC, before kickoff: Flora Tallinn win 58.5%, draw 16.0%, Tartu Welco win 25.5%. All three picks hit.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.